The Oscars are on the horizon, and this year’s competition for the best original screenplay category is particularly compelling. A diverse range of films is in contention, creating a landscape filled with uncertainty. Unlike previous years, where clear frontrunners were evident, this season offers no such markers to guide voters and analysts. Here, we explore the current contenders and the factors shaping this dynamic race.
The current state of the screenplay race
As of early January, the lack of major industry awards like the Writers Guild Award and BAFTA nominations prior to the Oscar announcements has left many industry professionals feeling uncertain. The Writers Guild nominations will follow the Academy’s reveal, while the BAFTA longlist serves as an important reference point. This longlist features prominent titles such as Blue Moon, A House of Dynamite, I Swear, Is This Thing On?, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, and Weapons.
Key insights from industry awards
A significant development occurred at the Critics Choice Awards, where Sinners, written by Ryan Coogler, won the award for best original screenplay. This victory positions Coogler as a strong contender, supported by a diverse group of nominees including Noah Baumbach and Emily Mortimer’s Jay Kelly, Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme, and Zach Cregger’s Weapons. Coogler’s win has sparked discussions, but the absence of guidance from the Writers Guild leaves writers feeling uncertain overall.
Potential dark horses in the race
While several films are emerging as frontrunners, intriguing dark horses could still surprise audiences. For example, The Secret Agent, crafted by Kleber Mendonça Filho, carries an international prestige that may appeal to voters. Similarly, Sorry, Baby, written by Eva Victor, has received critical acclaim, making it a potential wildcard. Additionally, the collaboration of Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, and Bradley Cooper in Is This Thing On? could benefit from Cooper’s star power, as he has a history of successful nominations in screenwriting.
Golden Globes and their implications
The Golden Globes provide another perspective on the evolving landscape of this awards season. Among the nominees are Coogler’s Sinners, along with Marty Supreme and Sentimental Value. These films have gained traction, appearing consistently across various precursor events. The recognition of Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident, a Palme d’Or winner, introduces an international element that aligns with BAFTA’s longlist, yet remains difficult to assess within the Academy’s voting demographics.
Looking ahead to nominations
As we approach the voting period from January 12 to January 16, anticipation builds for the official nominations to be announced on January 22. The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for March 15 at the Dolby Theatre, promising a night filled with excitement and potential surprises. In this unpredictable environment, the best original screenplay category exemplifies the ever-changing dynamics of the film industry.
