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One year has elapsed since the political upheaval in Syria, marked by the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad. This significant event was led by the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which swiftly took control, raising questions about the future of Russian involvement in the region. Traditionally, Russia has been a staunch ally of Assad, and its sudden pivot towards the new leadership has prompted speculation regarding the stability of Syrian-Russian relations.
Following the regime’s fall, many anticipated that Russia would lose its foothold in Syria. However, the Kremlin acted quickly, engaging with the newly established government. Russian diplomats were dispatched to Damascus to address crucial matters such as military bases and economic aid, culminating in a visit from the new Syrian president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, indicating a willingness to uphold previously established agreements.
The rapid shift in alliances
After the fall of Assad on December 8, 2025, Russia quickly adapted to the new political landscape. Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani revealed that HTS had assured Russia prior to launching its offensive that it would not expel Russian forces from Syria. This advance warning provided Moscow with an opportunity to adjust to the shifting dynamics.
In the immediate aftermath, Russian state media underwent a dramatic transformation, ceasing to label HTS as a terrorist organization. This marked a clear shift in the Kremlin’s narrative, as it sought to establish a cooperative relationship with the new authorities. This diplomatic maneuvering was further solidified through various meetings between Russian and Syrian officials, facilitating discussions about military collaboration and economic recovery.
Reasons for continued Russian-Syrian cooperation
The Syrian leadership’s decision to maintain ties with Russia stems from multiple factors. Firstly, Russia’s position as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council grants it significant leverage, particularly in addressing designations of HTS. President al-Sharaa has publicly acknowledged Russia’s influence, referring to it as the “second most powerful country in the world,” thus underscoring the importance of fostering a positive relationship with Moscow.
Additionally, the new Syrian government is likely considering various forms of Russian support. Earlier this year, Russia provided essential supplies such as oil and wheat, and it has a history of printing Syria’s currency. Moreover, the Syrian military, which operates on Soviet-era systems, may seek continued access to Russian weaponry. This mutual dependence underscores the rationale for the ongoing partnership.
Current challenges and geopolitical dynamics
Despite Russia’s efforts to maintain influence in Syria, the overall landscape has become increasingly complex. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has diverted some of Russia’s military focus and resources away from Syria. Consequently, its capacity to assert dominance in the region may be more limited than in previous years. Observers note that Iran and other allies have also faced setbacks, further complicating the situation.
Russia’s current standing in Syria is modest compared to the influence wielded by other regional players, such as Turkey and Israel. The latter, for instance, has conducted numerous military operations in southern Syria without Russian interference, demonstrating the shifting balance of power. Furthermore, reports suggest that Russian military personnel are now required to notify Syria’s Internal Security Service prior to any movement, highlighting a diminished level of autonomy.
The perception of Russia among Syrians
The views of the Syrian populace toward the new government and its relations with Russia are varied. While many harbor deep resentment towards Russia for its role in the conflict, they also recognize it as a global power. Unlike Iran, which is often viewed through a sectarian lens, Russia is seen as a pragmatic force capable of influencing the geopolitical landscape.
The new administration is tasked with navigating this delicate balance, attempting to maintain stability in a nation still recovering from years of war. The complexities of the current situation mean that any missteps could have profound implications for both the Syrian state and its relationship with Russia.
Prospects for the future
Following the regime’s fall, many anticipated that Russia would lose its foothold in Syria. However, the Kremlin acted quickly, engaging with the newly established government. Russian diplomats were dispatched to Damascus to address crucial matters such as military bases and economic aid, culminating in a visit from the new Syrian president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, indicating a willingness to uphold previously established agreements.0
Following the regime’s fall, many anticipated that Russia would lose its foothold in Syria. However, the Kremlin acted quickly, engaging with the newly established government. Russian diplomats were dispatched to Damascus to address crucial matters such as military bases and economic aid, culminating in a visit from the new Syrian president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, indicating a willingness to uphold previously established agreements.1