Satellite monitoring by the Prodes system shows that the Brazilian Amazon has reached an unprecedented level of forest preservation. In the 12-month period ending in 2026, cleared area fell to just 3,335 square kilometres, a 41.8% decline from the previous year and the smallest figure recorded since monitoring began in 1988. The reduction eclipses the former low by 1,236 sq km – an expanse roughly comparable to the city of Rio de Janeiro. Deforestation here refers to the permanent conversion of forest land to other uses, a metric that now suggests a turning point for the world’s largest tropical rainforest.
State-by-state performance and the Cerrado surprise
Even in the states traditionally linked to the highest removal rates, the downward trend is evident. Pará, responsible for 33.9% of Amazon loss, along with Mato Grosso (25.5%) and Amazonas (15.7%), all reported cuts exceeding 45% compared with the prior year. The sole exception was Roraima, where cleared area edged up by 0.4%, a modest increase in a region known for strong support of the Bolsonaro family. Beyond the canopy, the neighboring savannah biome of the Cerrado also hit a new low – 5,516 sq km – the smallest annual figure since 2001. Over the last four years, Cerrado clearance has fallen by 48.4%, challenging the long-standing perception that this biome serves as an “environmental sacrifice zone.”
Political crossroads: Lula versus Flávio Bolsonaro
The ecological breakthrough arrives on the eve of Brazil’s decisive presidential runoff scheduled for 25 October. Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva entered the race with a record of halving Amazon loss – a 71.2% reduction since 2022 – largely credited to stricter enforcement and increased funding for environmental agencies. His challenger, Flávio Bolsonaro son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has pledged to reverse many of those measures and aligns closely with land-owner interests that flourished under the previous administration. Former environment minister Marina Silva warned that Flávio intends to complete his father’s “perverse project” of forest degradation, while Lula frames the Amazon as a sovereign asset essential for Indigenous rights and global climate stability.
The candidates also diverge sharply on foreign policy. Lula has criticized the United States under Donald Trump for attempting to “colonise” Brazil’s natural resources, insisting that the Amazon remains under national control. In contrast, the Bolsonaro camp maintains strong US ties; Flávio’s brother Eduardo, a Texas resident, has called for American tariffs against Brazil, and the family has signaled a willingness to shift critical-mineral trade away from China and Europe toward the United States.
What the numbers mean for Brazil’s future
Climate-policy analysts stress that the latest figures illustrate how close the country stands to either cementing a new era of forest protection or slipping back into the high-deforestation trajectory of the 2019-Bolsonaro term, which saw a 59.5% surge – equivalent to more than a million trees felled each day. Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Climate Observatory, summed up the stakes: “The figure makes it clear that putting an end to forest destruction in Brazil is entirely possible. However, everything depends on the election result. The country will decide whether we move toward the end of deforestation or toward the end of the forest.” With the Amazon’s health now quantifiable at its best in 38 years, the outcome of the 25 October vote will determine whether that record becomes a lasting benchmark or a fleeting glimpse of what could have been.
