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In the recent parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic, right-wing populist Andrej Babiš and his ANO party achieved a significant electoral victory, capturing approximately 35 percent of the votes. This marks the highest percentage ever secured by a single party in the nation’s electoral history.
However, despite this triumph, Babiš’s path to securing the premiership is fraught with challenges and uncertainties.
With nearly all votes counted, Babiš’s party significantly outperformed the current Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s coalition, which garnered only 23 percent.
Nevertheless, the absence of a parliamentary majority in the 200-seat lower house means that Babiš must now navigate the intricate process of coalition-building, a task complicated by the refusal of mainstream parties to collaborate with him.
Challenges in coalition building
Political analysts express concern about the complexity of the negotiations ahead. According to Petr Kaniok, a political scientist from Masaryk University, the process of forming a government could extend over several months. He remarked, “The negotiations won’t be simple at all, and they won’t be quick either.”
Babiš has publicly stated his intention to establish a minority government with the support of the far-right party Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) and another right-wing group known as Motorists for Themselves.
“We will lead talks with the SPD and Motorists and strive for a single-party government led by the ANO movement,” he said.
Shifts in party dynamics
Interestingly, Babiš’s political positioning diverges from that of other extremist leaders such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán.
Analysts suggest that, barring pressure from anti-EU factions, Babiš may not be compelled to adopt radical stances. The outcomes for the far-left coalition Stačilo! (Enough) and the eurosceptic SPD were less favorable than expected. The former failed to meet the 5 percent threshold necessary for parliamentary representation, while the latter secured only 8 percent of the vote, reducing its potential influence.
Anna Shavit, a political marketing expert previously associated with Babiš’s campaign, noted, “Babiš could form his own government without likely having to make any agreements that would be anti-European.” This perspective aligns with Kaniok’s assessment, who described the results as “good news” for Czech foreign policy, suggesting that the weakening of radical parties may facilitate a more moderate government.
The president’s role and potential obstacles
Following the election, Czech President Petr Pavel will convene meetings with all parties that entered parliament. Traditionally, the president designates the leader of the winning party to attempt to form a government. However, the process is not straightforward, as the president has previously indicated an unwillingness to appoint ministers who promote leaving NATO or the EU.
Furthermore, the ongoing conflict of interest surrounding Babiš’s substantial agricultural business, Agrofert, looms large. Czech law prohibits officials from controlling businesses that could conflict with their official duties. Despite Babiš’s assurances during the campaign that he would resolve this issue, he has provided no concrete details on how this would be accomplished.
Electoral implications and foreign relations
As Babiš seeks to balance governance with his business interests, his stance on foreign policy remains a point of contention. He has advocated for reducing support to Ukraine and has previously criticized military initiatives led by the Czech government aimed at assisting Ukraine. Kaniok pointed out that ANO appears to have a more favorable inclination towards Russia compared to Ukraine.
European officials are monitoring Babiš’s political ascent with caution, fearing he could become another divisive figure within the EU, similar to Orbán. In response to such concerns, Babiš asserted, “We are clearly pro-European and pro-NATO.” He emphasized the necessity to prioritize discussions relevant to European citizens, particularly on energy prices and migration policies.
With nearly all votes counted, Babiš’s party significantly outperformed the current Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s coalition, which garnered only 23 percent. Nevertheless, the absence of a parliamentary majority in the 200-seat lower house means that Babiš must now navigate the intricate process of coalition-building, a task complicated by the refusal of mainstream parties to collaborate with him.0
With nearly all votes counted, Babiš’s party significantly outperformed the current Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s coalition, which garnered only 23 percent. Nevertheless, the absence of a parliamentary majority in the 200-seat lower house means that Babiš must now navigate the intricate process of coalition-building, a task complicated by the refusal of mainstream parties to collaborate with him.1
