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Picture this: an asteroid, once seen as a city-killer barreling toward Earth, suddenly shifts its attention to our Moon. Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered just a few months ago, has gone from being the star of doomsday scenarios to a potential cosmic mischief-maker.
Isn’t it just delightful when the universe plays games with our expectations? But here’s the kicker: it’s now looking like this rock might crash into the Moon in 2032 instead. How’s that for an intergalactic plot twist?
The discovery of 2024 YR4
Found on December 27 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile, this asteroid quickly jumped to the top of the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. Talk about a rapid rise to fame! Initially, the astronomical community was in a frenzy, thinking they might need to prepare for an Earthly apocalypse.
I mean, who doesn’t love a little drama?
But wait, the plot thickens. By February, new observations revised its trajectory so significantly that it was no longer considered a threat to our lovely planet. Seriously, what kind of cosmic game is this? One day you’re the villain, the next you’re just a pesky rock floating through space.
The international astronomy community is still keeping a close eye on 2024 YR4, even though it’s playing hard to get and won’t be visible through ground-based telescopes until 2028. Isn’t space just so unpredictable?
Moon collision odds increase
Fast forward to May, when a team led by Andy Rivkin at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory took a closer look using the James Webb Space Telescope’s Near-Infrared Camera.
They crunched the numbers and refined the asteroid’s orbit, bumping up the chances of a Moon crash on December 22, 2032, from a meager 3.8% to a slightly more eyebrow-raising 4.3%. Oh, joy! A whole extra 0.5% to worry about.
And here we thought we could just sit back and enjoy the lunar view.
Earlier in February, the odds of a Moon impact were pegged at only 1.7%. Now, that’s an impressive leap for a chunk of space rock. NASA, in its infinite wisdom, assures us that if Asteroid 2024 YR4 does collide with the Moon, it won’t change its orbit at all. The Moon is already a battered old rock, covered in craters from past encounters with other celestial objects. So, what’s one more? Just another day in the life of our satellite, right?
The size of 2024 YR4
Previous observations revealed that 2024 YR4 is about 200 feet wide—roughly the height of a 15-story building. That’s not exactly a small fry in the cosmic buffet. Rivkin even shared his insights in an April blog post for NASA. But alas, it seems our little rock has dipped behind the Sun, making it invisible to the Webb for now. A classic case of a celestial body playing hide-and-seek.
So here we are, left to ponder the fate of this asteroid. Will it crash into the Moon and create a new crater for future astronauts to marvel at? Will it just continue to float around, laughing at our anxiety? As we wait for the next set of numbers to drop, one can’t help but wonder: are we really at the mercy of such chaotic space happenings? Or is this just a cosmic prank? Either way, it makes for some entertaining speculation.
