Who’s involved
Military units and irregular groups are experimenting with low-cost airborne platforms, while European regulators, airport and port operators, and energy companies scramble to manage the risks these systems create for critical infrastructure and civilian airspace.
What’s changing
Cheap, commercially inspired unmanned systems — especially long-range drones and high-altitude balloons — are quietly rewriting the rules of engagement. With far lower price tags than manned aircraft, these tools can perform surveillance, resupply, and precision strikes, often at starker scale than traditional forces expected. The result: a shift in how conflicts are fought and in how civilian authorities must protect essential services across borders.
Where and when
Recent incidents and policy responses relate to strikes and disruptions at energy terminals, ports, airports and over civilian airspace across Europe, and to operations near conflict zones around the Black Sea. A notable case occurred the night of 14–15 February, when Ukrainian sources reported strikes on an energy terminal on Russia’s Black Sea coast and a Pantsir‑S1 air‑defence site in Crimea; Russian authorities said they intercepted dozens of UAVs and local officials reported fires and damage to storage and terminal facilities.
Why this matters
Affordable airborne platforms, combined with widely available commercial communications, let relatively small actors produce strategic effects without large budgets or advanced militaries. That creates a twofold challenge: defending civilian infrastructure and maintaining industrial capacity while adapting to rapidly evolving tactics.
How balloons and drones are being adapted for modern conflict
Combatants are taking readily available technologies and turning them into force multipliers. High-altitude balloons, once a novelty, are now practical tools: flying above many conventional air-defence envelopes, they can remain aloft for long periods and serve as surveillance platforms or as launch/relay points for smaller drones. Their slow, predictable motion makes them useful for persistent observation or covert resupply, and for tying up early-warning systems—yet they remain vulnerable to weather and certain sensor suites.
Long-range drones borrow heavily from commercial designs: extended range, GPS guidance, modular payload bays and the benefits of mass production. They can strike discrete pieces of infrastructure—energy terminals, coastal installations, even air‑defence sites—with precision. But they require more complex logistics, and layered defences can still detect and defeat many of them.
Tactical strengths and weaknesses
– Balloons: very cheap and endurance-rich; excellent for persistent ISR and as staging platforms. Drawbacks include weather sensitivity and easier detection by some sensors. – Long-range drones: offer greater precision, range and payload flexibility; harder to field and more exposed to interception by layered air defences.
Recent incidents that illustrate the evolving threat
The February strikes highlight how these systems are being used in practice. Reports described fires and damage to storage tanks and warehouses after massed aerial attacks that, in one account, involved dozens of UAVs. The pattern is clear: one side seeks to degrade export revenue and logistics hubs, while the other mounts concentrated aerial campaigns—using hundreds of drones and guided munitions—against networks that sustain civilian life, from power to transport.
Strategic consequences
The proliferation of unmanned systems pushes both offensive reach and defensive resilience to the center of national strategy. Disrupting export routes or logistics networks has a direct effect on an adversary’s ability to sustain operations. At the same time, protecting electricity grids, transport nodes and industrial capacity has become as urgent for civil authorities and private industry as it is for the military.
How the EU is responding
Because the threat crosses borders, the EU has started to coordinate policy and operational measures around four practical priorities:
– Hardening and preparedness: reinforce critical facilities, refresh contingency plans and update legal frameworks. – Early warning and information sharing: improve detection capabilities and cross-border exchanges between air-traffic and security networks. – Interoperable response: develop common interception protocols, attribution processes and incident-management procedures. – Industrial resilience: invest in domestic repair, spare‑parts capacity and resilient supply chains so damaged systems can be restored quickly. That combination forces governments, regulators and industry to rethink protection, detection and recovery. The next phase will be about scaling defenses, streamlining cross‑border cooperation, and ensuring critical services can withstand and recover from these new, low-cost threats.