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Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko recently made headlines with his visit to Myanmar, a trip that coincides with the military government’s preparations for national elections. These elections have been widely criticized as a mockery of democracy, raising concerns about legitimacy and governance in the Southeast Asian nation.
Arriving in Naypyidaw, the capital of Myanmar, Lukashenko was greeted with significant fanfare. His meeting with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the de facto leader of Myanmar’s military regime, was highlighted by state-run media as a moment of historic importance. This occasion marks the first visit of a Belarusian leader to Myanmar in over a quarter-century of diplomatic relations.
The significance of Lukashenko’s visit
This diplomatic engagement is particularly noteworthy as it positions Belarus as one of the few countries willing to engage with Myanmar’s military government following the February 1, coup that ousted the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi. Lukashenko’s visit places him alongside former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen as one of the only foreign leaders to visit Myanmar since the coup.
Support for upcoming elections
The timing of Lukashenko’s arrival is critical, occurring just weeks before the military plans to conduct elections that have been met with skepticism from both local and international observers. Many view these elections as a mere facade, designed to create an illusion of democratic processes while the military maintains control. Lukashenko’s presence is widely interpreted as a show of support for these elections, which the military claims will restore normalcy.
In conjunction with his meeting with Hlaing, Lukashenko’s administration has announced plans to send an observation team to monitor the elections. This move further solidifies the partnership between the two nations, with both leaders expressing a commitment to enhance cooperation in military technologies and trade.
Strengthening bilateral relations
During this visit, a roadmap titled Myanmar-Belarus Development Cooperation Roadmap 2026–2028 was signed, indicating a shared interest in advancing bilateral relations across various sectors. Minister of Foreign Affairs Maxim Ryzhenkov emphasized Myanmar’s potential in industrial sectors and Belarus’s expertise in mechanical engineering, particularly in agricultural mechanization.
Belarus is keen to provide its agricultural machinery to Myanmar, showcasing the potential for mutual benefit in trade and technological exchange. This initiative reflects a broader strategy of both nations to bolster their economies while sidestepping international isolation due to sanctions and political controversies.
Myanmar’s political landscape
The political situation in Myanmar is dire, with ongoing conflicts and a fractured control landscape. Following the coup, a robust protest movement transformed into a protracted civil war, diminishing the military’s grip on power significantly. Recent estimates suggest that the military currently controls less than half of the country, highlighting the challenges in holding elections under such conditions.
In preparation for the upcoming polls, the military government has undertaken a mass amnesty, releasing or dropping charges against over 8,600 individuals imprisoned for opposing military rule. This act, while seemingly benevolent, raises questions about the sincerity of the military’s intentions and the actual conditions under which these elections will be conducted.
Broader implications of the Belarus-Myanmar alliance
Lukashenko’s visit to Myanmar showcases a growing alliance between two regimes facing significant international scrutiny and sanctions. While Lukashenko’s administration has been characterized as authoritarian, it has maintained a complex relationship with Russia, often asserting its independence in decision-making.
Myanmar appears to look towards this partnership for guidance in navigating its own political and diplomatic challenges. The potential for Myanmar to adopt aspects of Belarus’s multi-vector foreign policy is notable, offering a framework for engaging with various international actors while balancing its relationships with larger powers such as China and Russia.
Despite the stark differences in history and societal structures between Myanmar and Belarus, both nations share common challenges of internal instability and external pressures. As such, this growing relationship may serve as a strategic maneuver for both parties in the face of international criticism.