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The excitement is palpable as the Canadian curling trials kick off this weekend in Halifax. This prestigious event features the nation’s top men’s and women’s teams competing fiercely for the opportunity to represent Canada at the upcoming Winter Olympics in Milano Cortina in February.
With a deep pool of talent, the trials will see eight men’s and eight women’s teams battling it out on the ice. The stakes are high, as these teams aim to secure their places in the four-player curling events while building on Canada’s storied legacy in the sport.
Format and structure of the trials
Commencing on Saturday, the trials will follow a round-robin format, where each team faces every other team exactly once. The team that emerges with the best record will advance directly to the finals, while the second and third place teams will compete in a semifinal to determine who will challenge the top seed.
A notable alteration this year is the introduction of a best-of-three format for the finals, as opposed to a single elimination game seen in the past. This change, set to unfold next Friday and Saturday, allows for more strategy and resilience, with a potential third match on Sunday if needed.
A look at past Olympic performances
Canada’s curling teams are under pressure to reclaim their former glory in Olympic competitions. Since the remarkable victories by Brad Jacobs and Jennifer Jones in 2014, Canada has struggled to maintain its dominant presence. With only a bronze medal secured by Brad Gushue in 2025, the path ahead seems daunting.
Moreover, several Canadian teams have failed to advance to the playoffs despite their impressive records. The skips representing Canada in recent Olympics—Gushue, Jones, Rachel Homan, and Kevin Koe—have collectively claimed 21 national championships and eight world titles, yet the results have not matched the expectations.
Women’s trials: Rachel Homan emerges as a prime contender
In the women’s division, Rachel Homan stands out as a formidable favorite. The 36-year-old skip, along with teammates Tracy Fleury, Emma Miskew, and Sarah Wilkes, has dominated the scene, winning consecutive world championships in 2025 and 2025. Their success continues into this season, where they have triumphed in all three Grand Slam events held thus far.
Homan’s rink has exhibited remarkable prowess, remaining unbeaten against Canadian competitors for over a year. Statistical analyses reinforce her status as the leading contender, with a staggering 91% likelihood of winning the trials. In stark contrast, no other team, including strong contenders like Kerri Einarson and Kaitlyn Lawes, boasts better than a 5% chance of claiming victory.
Potential matchups in the finals
As the trials progress, the focus shifts to who will challenge Homan in the finals. The data suggests that Homan will likely face off against one of several challengers, but her dominance makes it hard to foresee any upsets. Should she secure victory, the competition at the Olympics will be fierce, particularly against Silvana Tirinzoni of Switzerland, who has been a consistent rival.
Both Homan and Tirinzoni have previously faltered at the Olympics, underscoring the pressure inherent in the Olympic stage. Thus, while Homan remains the favorite, the path to gold in Italy will demand her utmost performance.
Men’s trials: A wide-open competition
In contrast to the women’s event, the men’s trials present a more unpredictable landscape. With no clear frontrunner, multiple skips have a legitimate chance of earning their Olympic berth. Brad Jacobs, the reigning Brier champion and Olympic gold medalist from 2014, is viewed as a slight favorite. His experienced team includes several notable players who have competed on the Olympic stage before.
Alongside Jacobs, Matt Dunstone emerges as a significant contender. Although he has not secured a Brier title, Dunstone has consistently performed well in the competition, reaching the semifinals multiple times. His current team has excelled on the Grand Slam tour, indicating they are a force to be reckoned with.
Statistical insights and predictions
Data from Shoreview Sports Analytics provides intriguing insights into potential outcomes for the men’s final. Predictions indicate a variety of plausible scenarios, with Jacobs and Dunstone leading the pack. The uncertainty of the competition heightens the anticipation as fans eagerly await the results.
As the trials unfold in Halifax, the curling community watches closely, eager to see which teams will earn the right to don the Maple Leaf in Italy. The upcoming matches promise intense competition, strategic play, and the thrill of Olympic aspirations on the line.