The Conference Board, a renowned business research association, has released its latest economic indicators for the United States, painting a nuanced picture of the nation’s economic health in mid-2026. The data reveals a mix of positive and negative trends that offer valuable insights into the country’s economic trajectory.
In May 2026, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US experienced a slight uptick, rising by 0.1% to reach 99.3 (2016=100). This follows a 0.2% increase in April, marking two consecutive months of growth. However, despite these recent gains, the LEI has declined by 0.3% over the six months between and May 2026, a significant improvement from the 1.3% contraction observed in the previous six-month period.
The Role of Financial Components in Economic Growth
The recent increases in the LEI can be largely attributed to positive contributions from financial components particularly stock prices and the interest rate spread. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board, noted that “the Leading Index for the US increased slightly in May, fueled entirely by positive contributions from financial components.” On the non-financial side, only the ISM® New Orders Index showed some strength, while consumer expectations remained a major drag.
Despite the two consecutive monthly increases, the LEI’s six- and twelve-month growth rates remained negative, suggesting a slower economic expansion ahead. Consumers are feeling the pinch as everyday costs, especially for gas and energy are rising faster than incomes. This leaves many households with less disposable income for travel, dining, entertainment, and shopping.
Current Economic Conditions and Future Projections
The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the US also showed positive signs, increasing by 0.2% in May 2026 to reach 114.6 (2016=100). This follows a marginal increase of 0.1% in April. Over the six months between and May 2026, the CEI expanded by 0.6%, an improvement from its growth of 0.2% in the previous six months. All components of the CEI, including payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production made positive contributions in May.
The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the US dipped by 0.1% to 120.5 (2016=100) in May 2026, after a 0.5% increase in April. However, the LAG’s six-month change was firmly in positive territory at 0.9% growth between and May 2026, up from being flat over the previous six months.
The Conference Board is currently projecting 1.8% year-over-year GDP growth in 2026, down from 2.1% in 2026. While the The good news is that businesses are investing heavily in AI, data centers, and new technology helping to sustain economic growth despite consumer pullback.
Benchmark Revisions and Future Releases
This month’s release of the composite economic indexes incorporates annual benchmark revisions, bringing them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made, and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed.
As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit The Conference Board’s website or contact them at indicators@.
The next release of the composite economic indexes is scheduled for Monday, July 20, 2026, at 10 A.M. ET.
