The Western United States is currently under siege from a combination of extreme weather conditions and devastating wildfires. The Four Corners region encompassing parts of UtahColoradoArizona and New Mexico is particularly at risk due to a highly critical fire weather danger that could exacerbate existing fires and spark new ones.
As of the latest reports, several significant wildfires are burning across the region. The Cottonwood Fire in Utah has scorched over 71,000 acres and remains 0% contained. Meanwhile, the Iron Fire has burned more than 40,000 acres and is 38% contained while the Cherry Fire has consumed an estimated 20,000 acres and is also 0% contained.
Extreme Fire Weather Conditions in the Four Corners Region
The National Weather Service has issued Red Flag Warnings for six states in the West, with some areas remaining under these warnings through Sunday. The greatest risk area for fire weather conditions later on Saturday is in the Four Corners region, which is under a level 3 of 3 threat with an extremely critical fire weather risk in place.
Hot, extremely dry, and windy conditions are creating favorable circumstances for new fires to ignite and spread rapidly. Vegetation in the area is incredibly dry, providing ample, quick-burning fuel for wildfires. In the extreme risk area, sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts up to 55 mph are forecast, with relative humidity values dipping into the single digits.
These conditions are promoting extreme fire behavior in an area already grappling with large, uncontrolled wildfires. Existing wildfires could explode in size and move erratically, while new fires could grow rapidly as well. Breezy and dry conditions will persist across this portion of the West this weekend, although cooler temperatures are expected to settle in.
Severe Thunderstorms and Flash Flooding Threats
While the West deals with wildfires, other parts of the country are facing threats from severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. On Saturday morning, rounds of heavy rain moved through parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, with Flood Watches in effect for the potential of flash flooding.
Flood Watches extend from southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas to northern West Virginia and southern Ohio. This includes places such as Charleston, West Virginia; Cincinnati, Ohio; Louisville, Kentucky; Nashville, Tennessee; Evansville, Indiana; and Poplar Bluff, Missouri. Some of these pockets of rain could produce strong storms with gusty winds and lightning.
Two primary areas of concern for severe weather on Saturday include North Carolina and the northern High Plains. In North Carolina, a level 2 of 5 threat for severe storms is in effect for the potential of storms producing damaging winds. Meanwhile, a level 3 of 5 “enhanced risk” of severe storms is in place for parts of west-central North Dakota, eastern Montana, and northwest South Dakota, including Minot, North Dakota, and Glendive, Montana.
A level 2 of 5 threat for severe storms also extends further into Montana and the Dakotas, reaching down to western Nebraska. Storms in these areas could produce damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes.
Extreme Heat Building Across the Central US
Over the weekend, extreme heat is expected to build in the central part of the country, starting in the southern Plains on Saturday and becoming more widespread across the central US by Sunday. There is growing confidence that a dangerous heat wave will impact millions across the Midwest early next week, with significant heat also building across much of the East Coast by midweek.
By Monday, widespread highs in the 90s are forecast across the Midwest, with afternoon temperatures soaring into the upper 90s in Minneapolis. Humid conditions will make it feel even hotter, with heat index values potentially reaching the triple digits in many areas. Chicago and Detroit are expected to see highs reaching the mid-to-upper 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday.
A large swath of the I-95 corridor is set for a heat wave beginning Tuesday as the heat builds east, with temperatures at or above 90 from Washington, D.C., to New York and staying through at least midweek. Meanwhile, in the West, below-average temperatures arriving this weekend are likely to linger across the region through at least the first half of next week.
