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10 August 2026

Diplomatic Relations Between China and Australia Reach a New Baseline

After years of diplomatic strain, China-Australia relations have reached a more stable baseline, according to a former Australian diplomat.

Diplomatic Relations Between China and Australia Reach a New Baseline

The diplomatic landscape between China and Australia has seen significant shifts in recent years. After a period of heightened tension, relations have stabilized to a ‘good enough’ baseline, according to Graham Fletcher a former top Australian diplomat and non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.

Fletcher, who served as Australia’s ambassador to China from to 2026, recently released a report highlighting the current state of bilateral relations. The report, published on Sunday, provides a nuanced perspective on the progress made and the challenges that remain.

Historical Context and Recent Developments

The relationship between China and Australia has experienced significant fluctuations. Since, the diplomatic ties have faced considerable strain, impacting various aspects of bilateral cooperation. However, Fletcher’s report suggests that the relationship is now on ‘a more realistic footing’.

Fletcher’s insights are particularly valuable given his extensive experience in diplomatic circles. His tenure as ambassador to China provided him with a unique perspective on the complexities of the relationship. The report emphasizes that while the current state of relations is an improvement, it still falls short of Beijing’s broader ambitions.

Key Insights from the Report

The report delves into the factors that have contributed to the stabilization of China-Australia relations. Fletcher highlights the importance of mutual understanding and realistic expectations in fostering a more constructive dialogue. He notes that both countries have made efforts to address past issues and build a more stable foundation for future cooperation.

One of the key points in the report is the recognition of the ‘good enough’ baseline. This term underscores the idea that while the relationship may not be at its peak, it has reached a level of stability that is acceptable for both parties. Fletcher suggests that this baseline is crucial for maintaining open lines of communication and addressing shared challenges.

The Role of the Lowy Institute

The Lowy Institute a prominent Sydney-based think tank, has played a significant role in analyzing and shaping the discourse on China-Australia relations. Fletcher’s report is a testament to the institute’s commitment to providing insightful analysis on critical international issues. The Lowy Institute has been at the forefront of fostering dialogue and understanding between different nations, making it a valuable resource for policymakers and researchers alike.

Fletcher’s report is just one example of the institute’s efforts to contribute to the broader conversation on international relations. By providing a detailed analysis of the current state of China-Australia relations, the report offers valuable insights into the complexities of diplomatic engagement in the Asia-Pacific region.

The stabilization of China-Australia relations is a significant development in the diplomatic landscape. As both countries continue to navigate the challenges and opportunities of their relationship, the insights provided by Graham Fletcher and the Lowy Institute will be instrumental in shaping future cooperation. The ‘good enough’ baseline serves as a reminder of the progress made and the work that still lies ahead.

Author

Henry Anderson

Henry Anderson of Edinburgh, sharp-corporate in demeanour, famously argued to run a council budget deep-dive after a packed Holyrood briefing, choosing public-accountability over easy headlines. Prefers evidence-led interrogation of institutions and collects annotated maps of the Lothians as a private quirk.