The latest outlook from the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC) indicates that most Canadians intend to keep travel on their calendars in 2026, even as transportation and living costs rise. The survey — which informs the BDC’s annual tourism outlook — found that roughly nine in 10 adults plan at least one trip this year. That intent is notable because many respondents are shifting preferences toward domestic travel, a change the BDC suggests could have measurable benefits for the national economy.
Beyond intent, the study quantifies potential impacts. The BDC estimates that if every Canadian traded a single overnight stay abroad for a day trip inside Canada, the result could be as much as $4.6 billion in additional GDP. The agency’s chief economist, Pierre Cléroux, told reporters that growing activity at home would expand the sector and lift employment, with positive knock-on effects across regions that rely on tourism.
Key survey findings
The poll of 1,000 Canadian adults, conducted online between Feb. 25 and March 3, delivers several headline statistics: about 92 per cent of prospective travellers expect to visit destinations within Canada, while 70 per cent plan at least one international trip. Interest in U.S. travel is weaker — only 30 per cent reported a U.S. trip in the works — reflecting an ongoing avoidance of that market among many respondents. These figures show a clear tilt toward the domestic market, with the tourism sector poised to capture a larger share of household spending this year.
Why Canadians are focusing on home
Motivations for choosing Canadian destinations are varied. A plurality — 45 per cent — said they want to explore Canada’s diverse regions, signalling curiosity about domestic offerings rather than purely cost-driven decisions. Meanwhile, 40 per cent cited visits to friends and family as a top reason, and 39 per cent said they specifically wanted to support Canadian businesses and the local economy. Just over one-quarter pointed to concerns about the U.S. or to affordability as reasons to stay closer to home. Households reported average planned travel spending near $7,000, with at least one-third of that expected to be spent domestically.
Affordability, energy and accommodation trends
Cost remains a central theme. While 58 per cent of respondents described travel as an important or central life priority, 81 per cent said they are making compromises to manage budgets, such as booking cheaper lodging or travelling off-peak. The report notes Canadians spent, on average, $43 less per night on domestic trips than on international nights last year. Although global events pushed energy prices higher — the survey responses were gathered both before and after the U.S. and Israel launched the war with Iran — the BDC argues those movements are unlikely to derail travel plans.
Currency and pricing dynamics
The BDC highlights a still-weak Canadian dollar — expected to remain under US$0.75 — as another factor supporting domestic tourism: a softer currency can draw more foreign visitors and encourage Canadians to concentrate spending at home. Accommodation providers have also eased prices compared with the previous year, helping offset fuel and other cost increases. As Cléroux noted, fuel is bothersome for consumers but represents roughly five per cent of the typical Canadian budget, limiting its potential to upend household travel spending.
Economic backdrop and outlook for 2026
Last year set a high bar: 2026 was a record year for domestic tourism, with Statistics Canada reporting consumer spending on travel rose by 2.5 per cent from 2026. That increase helped compensate for a 0.7 per cent decline in international tourist spending, and a late-year boost in foreign visitors helped push tourism GDP ahead of Canada’s overall economic growth. At the same time, cross-border visits to the U.S. have fallen markedly — roughly 25 per cent since late 2026 — following trade tensions and political disputes linked to former U.S. President Donald Trump; there has been a modest recent rebound.
Looking ahead, the BDC remains cautiously optimistic. Analysts do not expect a recession, which supports the prediction that Canadians will keep travelling in 2026. If the trend toward domestic exploration continues, the result could be stronger regional tourism economies, more jobs, and the kind of consumer spending that shores up local businesses. In short, the combination of persistent travel demand and a shift toward Canadian destinations could deliver both cultural and economic returns for communities across the country.
