The El Niño climate pattern has officially commenced, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This natural phenomenon, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, is expected to bring significant weather disruptions and could potentially become one of the strongest events on record.
As the world grapples with the effects of long-term climate changethe onset of El Niño raises concerns about exacerbated global temperatures and extreme weather events. Scientists are closely monitoring the situation, with forecasts suggesting a possible “super” El Niño event that could rival historical records.
Understanding the Current El Niño Event
The declaration by NOAA comes as sea surface temperatures in the central and tropical Pacific have surpassed the 0.5°C-above-average threshold, a key indicator of El Niño conditions. This shift has been accompanied by changes in atmospheric winds, signaling that the atmosphere is responding to the warming ocean.
What has caught researchers off guard is the high level of confidence in the computer models predicting the strength of this El Niño. The intensity of El Niño is measured by the deviation of sea surface temperatures from the average in a critical zone of the Pacific. A strong event is defined as more than 1.5°C above average, while a very strong event exceeds 2°C.
Historical Context and Predictions
According to NOAA’s June outlook, there is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during the November-January period, which could rank among the largest events since records began in 1950. The strongest events in recent history occurred in 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16. Some of the latest models from the US and Europe suggest that temperatures in the tropical Pacific could climb more than 3°C above average by the end of the year.
However, NOAA cautions that even very strong El Niño events do not guarantee uniform impacts everywhere. Stronger events can significantly increase the likelihood of expected outcomes, but the effects can vary widely.
Global Impacts and Concerns
The current El Niño is occurring against a backdrop of substantial global warmingwhich amplifies its potential impacts. Prof. Adam Scaifehead of monthly to decadal prediction at the UK Met Officeemphasizes the need to worry about these impacts. “The current El Niño is riding on top of a substantial amount of global warming,” he notes. “This means that the actual temperatures in affected regions could well be unprecedented, as the warming from El Niño is being topped up by climate change.”
A very strong El Niño typically raises global air temperatures by around 0.2°Creleasing heat stored in the ocean into the atmosphere. This additional heat is expected to contribute to record-breaking temperatures, particularly in 2027. The year 2026 was the warmest on record, boosted by an El Niño that was not particularly strong. Despite the cooling effects of a La Niña event, 2026 still ranked as the third warmest year on record, surpassing the super El Niño year of 2016.
Regional Weather Disruptions
El Niño’s effects are most pronounced in the tropics. Flooding is common in northern Peru and southern Ecuadorand can extend to parts of East AfricaCentral Asiaand the southern United States. Simultaneously, the risk of drought and wildfires increases across much of AustraliaIndonesiaand northern South Americaimpacting agriculture and global food supplies.
El Niño also tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes, leading to a quieter-than-average hurricane season. However, this can result in reduced rainfall and potential drought conditions in Central America. Even the UK can feel the effects, with El Niño tilting the odds towards a mild start and cold end to winter, although these links are not as strong.
Global Responses and Preparedness
For many communities, the forecast is far from abstract. Mohamed Adowdirector of Power Shift Africahighlights the severe implications: “An El Niño declaration is not just another weather forecast – for millions of people it is a deadly siren to be feared. It means failed rains, dying crops, rising food prices, and families pushed to the edge yet again. In East Africa especially, this will land on communities already battered by droughts and floods in recent years.”
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) shares NOAA’s assessment, confirming the presence of El Niño conditions and predicting its continuation into the autumn. However, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has not yet formally declared the event, using a stricter criterion requiring sea surface temperatures to exceed 0.8°C above average. The BoM expects El Niño to develop later this year and could be strong.
El Niño occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts about a year. While there is no conclusive evidence that climate change is making these events stronger or more frequent, a warming world can intensify their effects. As scientists continue to monitor the situation, the global community braces for the potential impacts of this significant climate event.
