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Condo market faces unprecedented decline in GTHA
The condo market in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) has experienced a significant downturn, reaching levels not observed in over three decades. According to recent findings from the real estate research firm Urbanation, a concerning trend has emerged: only 319 units were sold during the third quarter of 2025.
This represents a staggering 54% drop compared to the same quarter last year and is an alarming 92% lower than the average sales figures from the past decade for this period.
Market conditions and their implications
According to Shaun Hildebrand, president of Urbanation, the current state of the condo sector indicates a difficult correction following a period of inflated growth during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The rapid expansion experienced during that time has resulted in a necessary contraction, reflected in reduced sales figures and a wave of project cancellations.
Cancelled projects on the rise
A notable trend has emerged, with the number of construction projects halted after breaking ground reaching unprecedented levels.
In the past three months alone, 10 projects involving 2,499 units faced cancellation. This brings the total for the year to 18 projects and approximately 4,040 units cancelled. Such developments raise significant concerns regarding future supply in the market.
Despite the current stagnation in sales activity, Hildebrand posits that this trend may ultimately result in tighter supply in the coming years. He contends that the present downturn could, in fact, set the stage for a market resurgence as the scarcity of new units becomes evident.
Declining new construction and overall housing market impact
The report reveals a significant construction slowdown in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), with only two new projects commencing, contributing a mere 614 units. This figure marks a dramatic 77% decrease from the previous year and stands at 88% below the average number of projects initiated over the last decade.
The current construction landscape is characterized by a notable excess in supply, as fewer new buildings are being launched.
Broader implications for the housing market
The Canadian housing market is experiencing notable changes, as indicated by recent statistics from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Overall home sales in Canada declined by 1.7% from August to September. This decrease is largely attributed to significant drops in key markets including Greater Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, and Montreal.
A report by Royal LePage suggests that the housing market may approach a state of equilibrium as fall arrives. The ongoing decline in home prices could stabilize by year-end. Nationally, the average home price is projected to reach approximately $827,796 by the end of the year, indicating a modest increase of 1% from last year’s average of $819,600.
In the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), the condo market is facing significant shifts. Stakeholders are considering the future trajectory of the condo sector alongside the broader housing landscape in Canada.
