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One year has passed since the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the influential leader of Hezbollah. Reports indicate that the group is working to reorganize itself. Once considered the preeminent nonstate military actor in the Middle East, Hezbollah’s power appears to be diminishing, rendering it less capable of posing a serious threat to Israel.
However, the organization still holds the potential to disrupt the internal political landscape within Lebanon.
The past year has seen increased calls, both internationally and domestically, for Hezbollah to disarm. Some analysts caution that the push for disarmament could provoke Hezbollah into violent responses.
Others observe the group’s ongoing defiance and commitment to its military capabilities.
Hezbollah’s current state and response
As Hezbollah grapples with the aftermath of its leadership losses during the recent conflict, the group’s rhetoric remains unwavering. Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s current leader, addressed thousands at Nasrallah’s tomb, asserting, “We will never abandon our weapons, nor will we relinquish them.” This declaration underscores the group’s intention to resist any attempts to disarm it, particularly from the Lebanese government.
The conflict escalated significantly after Israel launched military operations in Gaza on October 8, 2023, leading to a series of retaliatory exchanges between Hezbollah and Israel. The violence reached a peak by September 2024, resulting in thousands of casualties and widespread displacement within Lebanon.
Ceasefire complexities and regional implications
A ceasefire was brokered on November 27, but the terms were ambiguous. The general understanding suggested a mutual cessation of attacks, with Hezbollah expected to disarm in southern Lebanon and Israel to withdraw its forces.
However, disagreements quickly arose, with the United States and Israel demanding Hezbollah’s complete disarmament. This situation has emboldened Hezbollah’s adversaries, who are now more vocal in their calls for the group to relinquish its arms.
With Hezbollah showing signs of weakness, many of its domestic partners have shifted their stance, now advocating for the group to disarm.
On September 5, the Lebanese government announced that the Lebanese Armed Forces would be tasked with developing a plan to facilitate Hezbollah’s disarmament.
Internal pressures and external dynamics
In the wake of these developments, Israel has continued its military operations, allegedly violating ceasefire agreements through airstrikes in southern Lebanon. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has reported numerous violations, indicating a tense environment in the region.
Despite speculation about Hezbollah’s military regrouping, the group has conducted only a single attack since the ceasefire took effect. Analysts suggest that Hezbollah’s ability to pose a direct threat to Israel has been significantly curtailed. Any escalated military action from Israel may stem from factors beyond Hezbollah’s current capabilities.
Strategic shifts and future prospects
Hezbollah’s leadership faces a critical juncture as they navigate the pressures of disarmament and the need to maintain military credibility. Supporters of Hezbollah contend that the ongoing threats from Israel necessitate the group’s military readiness. Ali Haidar, a columnist for a pro-Hezbollah publication, suggested that the group’s deterrence capabilities must be preserved in light of Israel’s continued aggressions.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical landscape in the region has transformed, particularly after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. This regime has historically served as a conduit for arms and support to Hezbollah from Iran. In response, Hezbollah has sought to utilize diplomatic channels, even reaching out to former adversaries like Saudi Arabia to clarify its intentions.
The past year has seen increased calls, both internationally and domestically, for Hezbollah to disarm. Some analysts caution that the push for disarmament could provoke Hezbollah into violent responses. Others observe the group’s ongoing defiance and commitment to its military capabilities.0
The path forward for Hezbollah
The past year has seen increased calls, both internationally and domestically, for Hezbollah to disarm. Some analysts caution that the push for disarmament could provoke Hezbollah into violent responses. Others observe the group’s ongoing defiance and commitment to its military capabilities.1
The past year has seen increased calls, both internationally and domestically, for Hezbollah to disarm. Some analysts caution that the push for disarmament could provoke Hezbollah into violent responses. Others observe the group’s ongoing defiance and commitment to its military capabilities.2
