The Strait of Hormuz—a choke point through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes—has become the epicentre of an escalating naval duel. In the span of just over a week, recorded assaults on merchant vessels have climbed to a level not seen since the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran intensified in February.
Two additional ships reported being struck on Friday, pushing the tally of incidents to a record high and sending ripples through global energy markets.
Iran widens surveillance and adopts new strike methods
Iranian naval commands announced the deployment of fresh operational units east of the Strait, extending their reach across the Sea of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The units are tasked with “real-time surveillance of enemy activities and maritime traffic,” and the navy has warned vessels to keep their transponders active and to coordinate with Iranian forces for safe passage.
In parallel, senior Iranian officials disclosed a tactical shift that began about ten days ago. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has moved from relying on larger fast boats to using small, unarmed spotter vessels—often traditional dhows—to locate potential targets, including U.S. warships. A U.S. military source confirmed that one such dhow was confronted, its occupants ordered to abandon ship, and the vessel subsequently destroyed. The same source noted that these spotters are now relaying coordinates to IRGC units, which then launch the actual attacks.
The change in approach also includes a faster tempo of strikes and a broader geographic scope, now reaching beyond the narrow confines of the Strait to waters off Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. According to a senior Iranian official, the new strategy is designed to hinder any effort that might lower global oil prices before the upcoming U.S. mid-term elections.
Attack frequency hits historic peak
Data from maritime-monitoring firms show a sharp uptick in violent incidents. Between 28 September and 4 October, ten tankers were hit inside the Strait; a further strike was recorded on 5 October. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) logged fifteen additional attacks from 6 October to 14 October, with eleven occurring in the last four days alone. Targets have ranged from container ships to tankers, struck by unknown projectiles and, in some cases, by drones.
The U.S. Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) rated the threat level to merchant shipping as “severe,” the second-highest category in its assessment. Their report listed ongoing UAV overflights, targeted surveillance, and occasional VHF hailing—radio calls intended to intimidate crews—as part of the IRGC’s harassment campaign.
Oil shipments tumble, prices climb
Before the February-late war began, the Strait typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels daily, accounting for roughly 20 percent of global crude and liquefied natural gas flows. In September, oil movements rebounded to over 81 percent of pre-war levels, with daily exports reaching 17.1 million barrels on average. However, the recent surge in attacks has forced a drastic decline: on 11 October, only 2.9 million barrels moved through the waterway, compared with 20.8 million barrels just three days earlier.
The tightening of shipping routes has pushed insurance premiums sky-high and forced crews to accept substantial bonuses for daring the passage. Brent crude futures responded swiftly, gaining $0.89 (0.8 percent) to settle at $106.58 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate hovered around $94.14. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has dismissed Iranian claims of controlling the Strait, emphasizing that American forces and regional partners continue to escort more than 19 million barrels of oil daily.
