The United States experienced an unprecedented flow of newcomers between 2021 and 2024, when roughly 6.5 million people arrived outside the conventional legal channels. Researchers from Rutgers, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the University of North Florida compiled the data for a Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) presentation held on September 24. Their analysis shows that the surge—equivalent to a 2% jump in the national population—raised the share of foreign-born residents to a century-high level.
New arrivals gravitated to a handful of metropolitan hubs. The New York City area absorbed the largest slice, followed by Miami, Los Angeles, Dallas-Fort Worth, Chicago and Houston. This concentration set the stage for the labor-market and housing-market dynamics that unfolded over the next three years.
Economic ripple effects across metropolitan areas
According to the study, the influx added about 1.5% to the gross domestic product (GDP) of the affected metros. The boost primarily stemmed from heightened consumption demand as newcomers purchased goods and services. Moreover, the authors argue that immigrant labor tended to complement native workers rather than replace them, which may have nudged
Wage impacts were modest. While the average wage for the entire workforce slipped by up to 1.5% native workers actually saw a rise of roughly 0.9%. Employment levels for native-born workers remained essentially flat, suggesting that the new labor supply did not displace existing jobs in a meaningful way.
Housing market pressure and internal migration adjustments
The sudden population increase intensified demand for rental housing, pushing rents up by 1.4–1.6% in the most impacted cities. Importantly, native renters experienced a net income gain of at least 1.6% after accounting for the rent hike, thanks to the broader wage increase noted earlier.
These dynamics unfolded against the backdrop of a post-pandemic economic rebound powered by federal stimulus and low interest rates. The authors observed that the strongest wage and rent movements occurred early in the surge, when the economy was still catching up from COVID-19 disruptions.
Domestic migration response
As the immigrant influx persisted, internal migration patterns shifted. People already living in the United States began moving less frequently into the busiest metros, likely because rising rents and heightened job competition discouraged further inflows. In a Brookings interview, lead author Jennifer Hunt suggested that low-wage native workers may have opted out of city moves because of these pressures.
Targeted busing campaign and its localized impact
Between April 2022 and June 2024, Texas and Arizona sponsored a free-bus program that transported almost 125,000 immigrants to six major cities: Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles, New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. Migrants from Venezuela and Colombia were the most likely to use the service, while Cuban and Haitian newcomers tended to settle in Miami, where established diaspora networks existed.
The temporary concentration of bus-lifted migrants had a measurable short-term effect in Denver—the city that received the highest per-capita share of these travelers. In Denver, native wages dipped relative to other metros, underscoring how sudden, localized inflows can generate modest labor-market frictions.
