The economic landscape in the United States is showing signs of cautious optimism, even as inflation and cost pressures continue to pose significant challenges. The latest AICPA and CIMA Economic Outlook Survey, conducted in August 2026, reveals a complex picture of resilience and restraint among business leaders.
For the first time in a year, inflation has surged back to the forefront of concerns for chief executive officers, chief financial officers, and controllers. Despite this, there is a notable increase in optimism regarding both the US and global economies, accompanied by improved revenue and profit projections.
Inflation and Cost Pressures Dominate Concerns
Inflation, along with rising costs of materials, supplies, and equipment, and domestic economic conditions, are the top three challenges identified by the 206 executives surveyed. Each of these issues has moved up one spot in the third quarter, highlighting their growing impact on business operations.
Nearly eight in ten respondents indicated that inflation poses a greater risk to their businesses than deflation. Key inflationary pressures include labor costs, materials costs, energy prices, and interest rates. Notably, labor costs, while still the top inflationary risk, have decreased slightly from 29% to 26%, whereas interest rate concerns have increased from 16% to 19%. Energy costs have also seen a decline in concern, falling from seventh to tenth on the list of challenges.
Optimism on the Rise
The percentage of executives optimistic about the US economy over the next 12 months has risen from 32% to 36%, and optimism in the global economy has improved from 19% to 24%. This uptick in confidence is reflected in the increased forecast for profit growth, which has risen from 1.1% to 1.5% quarter-over-quarter, and revenue projections, which have bumped up from 2.6% to 3.1%, the highest figure since the fourth quarter of 2024.
However, the percentage of executives forecasting that their own businesses will expand in the next year has dropped from 54% to 49%, indicating a slight slip in optimism regarding individual company performance. Tom Hood, CPA/CITP, CGMA, executive vice president–Business Growth and Engagement at the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants, noted that while confidence has improved, organizations are maintaining a disciplined approach to investment and growth as they monitor inflation, costs, and broader market conditions.
Hiring Sentiment and Spending Plans
Hiring sentiment has shown improvement, with the percentage of CPA leaders needing employees increasing from 28% to 33%. Those with plans to hire have jumped from 16% to 20%, while those hesitant to hire remain low at 13%. A majority of respondents, 53%, reported having the right number of employees, suggesting a balanced approach to workforce management.
Projected growth in spending over the next 12 months has slowed by a half-percentage point in each of three areas covered by the survey. Executives are forecasting a 2.9% increase in IT spending, 2.4% in other capital expenditures, and 1.3% in training and development. This indicates a continued focus on financial discipline and measured growth.
Recession concerns have moderated from the previous quarter, with 46% of respondents believing the US economy is either already in a recession or will enter one by the end of 2026, down from 51% in Q2. A majority remain uncertain about whether a recession will occur, reflecting the ongoing uncertainty in the economic outlook.
