As Israel approaches its general elections on October 27, 2026, the country finds itself at a critical juncture. The political landscape is marked by intensified violence in the occupied West Bank, deepening divisions among Jewish voters, and the ongoing fallout from the October 7, 2026, attacks. The elections are set to be a defining moment for the nation’s future, with far-reaching implications for both Israelis and Palestinians.
The current far-right government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has faced widespread criticism for its handling of security and democratic norms. The violence in the occupied West Bank, particularly attacks by Israeli settlers, has trapped Palestinian families in their homes and raised international concerns. Meanwhile, the political discourse within Israel has shifted dramatically, with the prospect of a two-state solution seemingly sidelined.
The Escalation of Settler Violence
The occupied West Bank has witnessed a surge in settler attacks, exacerbating the already volatile situation. Palestinian families have been confined to their homes, unable to access essential services or move freely. The United Nations has stepped in to deliver aid to those affected, highlighting the severity of the crisis. The escalation in violence coincides with Israel’s upcoming elections, adding another layer of complexity to the political landscape.
Ofer Cassif, a member of the Knesset representing the Hadash-Ta’al political alliance, has been vocal about the government’s role in the escalating violence. He argues that the far-right coalition has emboldened settlers, leading to a rise in attacks. Mouin Rabbani, co-editor of the Jadaliyya online magazine, echoes these concerns, emphasizing the need for international intervention to curb the violence.
The Political Divide
Analysts and pollsters agree that the October 27 elections are critical for Israel’s future. The traditional fault lines between the right and liberal wings have evolved, with a near-universal animosity towards Palestinians and the two-state solution now largely dismissed. Jewish voters are grappling with fundamental questions about the nature of Israeli democracy, the legitimacy of governing coalitions, and the state’s future direction.
Social-political psychologist Daniel Bar-Tal highlights the importance of overturning the nomination of loyalists to key positions within the civil service and security forces. He believes that the far-right coalition’s attempts to bypass democratic norms and halt the de facto exemption of the ultra-Orthodox minority from conscription are central issues for voters.
The Aftermath of October 7, 2026
The October 7, 2026, attacks, which resulted in the deaths of 1,139 people, continue to dominate the Israeli popular consciousness. The endless recycling of these events on television news networks has overshadowed the plight of Palestinians in Gaza, where 73,387 have been killed since then. The focus has shifted to an inquiry into the security breach and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s role in the events leading up to the attacks.
Netanyahu has used the multiple wars since October 7 to argue against holding an inquiry and to defer his trials over alleged corruption. Prominent Israeli sociologist Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani notes that there is a growing sentiment among the public to remove Netanyahu from power. The opposition, while often almost as right-wing as the governing Likud party, is seen as the “Anti-Netanyahu bloc.”
The Erosion of Democratic Norms
The 2026 judicial overhaul, which sought to free the government from much of the judicial oversight, is part of an assault upon the institutions of the state, according to critics. Other attacks on these norms include placing loyalists to oversee different branches of the security services and a sustained campaign by the far right to oust Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara.
Baharav-Miara is responsible for policing the legality of the coalition’s conduct, and far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has made her dismissal a condition of joining any future government coalition. Crisis Group’s Mairav Zonszein believes that the issues that matter to voters are almost entirely domestic, with the divide over the judicial overhaul being a key concern.
The Palestinian Perspective
Most of Israel’s mainstream Jewish parties have ruled out forming a governing coalition with any Arab parties. Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has labeled this prospect as “worse” than the October 7 attack. Even the alliance of former Prime Ministers Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett, whose 2026 government included the Arab Ra’am party, has not committed to bringing parties dominated by Palestinian citizens of Israel into a future coalition.
This leaves many of Israel’s Palestinian citizens without a voice amid endemic violence and organized crime, which many believe the government has deliberately allowed to fester. The level of neglect can be measured in the death toll, with 158 Palestinian citizens of Israel murdered this year. Sociologist Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani notes that the perceived lawlessness in Palestinian neighborhoods and settler assaults on the occupied West Bank are designed to prevent Palestinians from casting their ballots.
The Ultra-Orthodox Community
The ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi, community and their parties – Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) – will likely focus on attempts to conscript their contingent into the military. The refusal of the ultra-Orthodox to serve has become one of the most combustible fault lines in Israeli politics today. Their leaders continue to frame full-time Torah study as their true national calling and a form of “spiritual protection” for the Jewish people.
Thousands of Haredi men blocked thoroughfares in Jerusalem in June to protest attempts to conscript them. This has seen heated rhetoric from secular, but often right-wing, politicians against them. Israeli political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg notes that the prominence given to this issue is a consequence of the heightened militarism that has been in place since October 7.
As Israel prepares for its crucial elections, the nation’s future hangs in the balance. The outcome will determine not only the direction of Israeli politics but also the lives of Palestinians living under occupation. The stakes could not be higher.
