The economic mood in the United States presented a complex picture in June 2026, as consumer confidence experienced a modest uptick despite growing concerns about the labor market. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index® rose by 0.6 points to 91.2, up from a revised 90.6 in May. This slight improvement came amid falling oil prices and an extended US-Iran ceasefire agreement, which appeared to ease some inflation fears among consumers.
However, the data revealed a more nuanced story. While consumers expressed slightly more positive views about current business conditions, their perceptions of the labor market softened significantly. This mixed sentiment suggests that while some economic pressures may be easing, challenges in the job market remain a pressing concern for many Americans.
The Present Situation: A Tale of Two Markets
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell by 3.0 points to 116.4. This decline was driven by a worsening perception of employment conditions. The labor market differential—the difference between consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ and those saying jobs are ‘hard to get’—dropped by 2.6 percentage points to just +2.4%. Notably, the percentage of consumers saying jobs are ‘hard to get’ rose to 22.5%, the highest level since.
Despite these labor market concerns, consumers’ views of current business conditions improved marginally. The net views of business conditions—the share saying conditions are ‘good’ versus ‘bad’—rose by 1 percentage point to +3.5%. This suggests that while the job market may be softening, some consumers still see stability or even improvement in broader business conditions.
Expectations for the Future: Cautious Optimism
The Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, rose by 3.0 points to 74.4. This improvement was driven by more optimistic expectations for business conditions and household incomes over the next six months. However, expectations for labor market conditions remained largely unchanged, indicating that consumers anticipate little improvement in job availability in the near term.
Among different demographic groups, confidence varied significantly. Consumers under age 35 maintained the highest level of confidence, although all age groups showed a downward trend on a six-month moving average basis. By income, confidence was mixed or little changed across all categories. Politically, confidence among Independents and Democrats rose, while Republicans were somewhat less positive on a month-over-month basis.
Economic Concerns and Spending Plans
Consumers’ write-in responses continued to reflect a pessimistic outlook in June, with frequent mentions of prices, oil and gas, and geopolitical conflicts. However, references to these issues eased slightly, suggesting some relief from inflationary pressures. Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations were less elevated, although a majority still expected higher interest rates over the next year.
Looking ahead, consumers’ plans to purchase big-ticket items improved slightly. Buying plans for autos and homes rose on a six-month moving average basis, while expectations for furniture and smartphones moderated. Spending plans for services such as restaurants, streaming, and beauty and personal care remained strong, indicating a continued focus on discretionary spending.
As the economic landscape continues to evolve, consumers’ sentiments will likely remain a key indicator of the nation’s economic health.
