The Los Angeles mayoral primary has narrowed to an unexpectedly close contest. A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, conducted May 19–24, shows Mayor Karen Bass at 26%, Councilmember Nithya Raman at 25%, and former reality star Spencer Pratt at 22% among likely voters. The survey of 1,913 registered voters — 1,351 of whom were classified as likely participants — comes with an approximate margin of error of 3 percentage points, placing all three leading contenders within statistical reach.
These figures mark a notable shift from polling earlier this year and underscore how quickly momentum can change in a crowded, nonpartisan municipal race. With roughly 10% of voters still undecided — down sharply from 26% in the March survey — the final days of the campaign emphasize mobilization and persuasion more than ever.
What the numbers reveal about momentum and perceptions
Since the March poll, both Raman and Pratt have made substantial gains. Each jumped about 8 percentage points, while Bass’ support remained virtually unchanged. Poll director Mark DiCamillo of the Berkeley IGS framed the contest as one where turnout will likely determine which candidates move forward, noting that the three top contenders draw from different constituencies and that late movement could be decisive.
Favorability and its electoral implications
Favorability ratings paint a mixed picture. Bass and Pratt each carry high unfavorable numbers at 57%, while Raman is the only front-runner with a net-positive profile; she registers a 40% favorable rating and a 35% unfavorable rating. In contrast, Bass is viewed favorably by 35% of likely voters and Pratt by 25%. These impressions matter because the poll suggests that head-to-head dynamics could shift depending on which two candidates clear the primary.
Runoff scenarios and strategic calculations
The Berkeley IGS poll also tested several potential November matchups. In a registered-voter head-to-head, Raman would lead Bass 32% to 28%, while Bass would beat Pratt 47% to 29%, and Raman would top Pratt 45% to 28%. Those results indicate that even if Pratt reaches the runoff, his path to victory in November would be steeper, given Los Angeles’ voter registration tilt and the relative strength of Bass and Raman among key blocs.
Money, profile boosts and campaign narratives
Fundraising totals add another layer to the story. Pratt reported roughly $3.26 million in contributions through May 16, Bass about $3.13 million, and Raman a total near $931,000, including a $60,000 personal loan and the race’s full available matching funds of $1.25 million. Beyond cash, Pratt has translated public attention — amplified by his postfire recovery narrative after losing a Palisades home — into momentum, while Raman’s late surge reflects energized progressive voters and intensified organizing on the ground.
Issues driving voter choices
The campaign has revolved around a small set of familiar municipal concerns: homelessness, public safety and housing affordability. Bass’s team highlights reductions in street homelessness and crime as a record of governance. Raman critiques Bass’ Inside Safe homelessness program as costly and unsustainable, arguing for different priorities and strategies. Pratt seizes on frustrations with postfire rebuilding and municipal responsiveness, using his own experience to cast doubt on the incumbent’s crisis management.
Endorsements and external attention
High-profile endorsements and external commentary have also mattered. Governor Gavin Newsom publicly backed Bass shortly before the primary, praising her work on homelessness and crime reduction. Former President Donald Trump drew attention to Pratt, acknowledging his candidacy and describing him as aligned with his political movement, a dynamic that complicates Pratt’s prospects in a city with relatively low Republican registration.
What to watch in the final days
With the primary approaching, the decisive factors are likely to be turnout among each candidate’s base, last-minute shifts in public perception, and how undecided voters break. The survey’s reduction in undecided respondents from March’s levels to roughly 10% suggests that the electorate is consolidating, but the narrow margins and high unfavorable ratings for two of the top three mean that a late surprise remains possible. For now, Los Angeles is watching a rare three-way statistical dead heat in what had been expected to be a more comfortable path for the incumbent.
As the city prepares for major upcoming events and continues to confront long-term challenges, the winner will inherit one of the nation’s largest municipal budgets and the task of translating campaign promises into governance. The Berkeley IGS findings, conducted May 19–24 among 1,913 registered voters, provide a snapshot of voter sentiment at a pivotal moment in the campaign.
