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The start of the NCAA Tournament brings equal parts excitement and strategy for fans, bracket players and bettors. With the field set and the bracket public, analysts and oddsmakers have begun weighing which favorites should be trusted and which lower seeds might break hearts and brackets. A recent piece published 18/03/2026 13:00 highlighted several long shots that merit attention, and state-by-state wagering data from BetMGM — current as of March 17 at 12:15 p.m. ET — shows where public money is flowing.
As the first weekend approaches (the opening round is scheduled for Thursday, March 19 and Friday, March 20), it’s useful to separate three questions: which favorites carry the clearest path, which mid- and low-seeds have real upset potential, and how bettors’ collective choices may influence lines and narratives. Below we break those topics into digestible sections, noting team names, odds, and matchup details that matter for anyone filling a bracket or placing a wager.
Favorites, odds and where public money is going
Oddsmakers have made clear who they view as the most likely champion: Duke sits atop title markets with odds of +300 on BetMGM, and the program is the most-bet team in multiple regions. The betting provider’s snapshot from March 17 at 12:15 p.m. ET shows Duke leading the list in six states and districts, while programs such as Michigan, Arizona and Florida also attract substantial attention. That public commitment can tighten spreads and influence market movement, especially when momentum rallies behind a blue-blood program like Duke as it prepares to open East Region play.
Market leaders and what they imply
When a team is the most bet-on in multiple states it signals both fan loyalty and confidence from casual bettors; in this cycle Duke tops that list in six territories, and Michigan ranks first in five. Those patterns matter because they can affect in-game lines and the perceived safety of favorites in bracket pools. Remember that strong public backing does not guarantee a title — rather, it alters the marketplace and often makes upsets more—economically speaking—profitable for contrarian players.
State-by-state snapshot
BetMGM’s state breakdown names several leaders: Duke in six states and Washington, D.C.; Michigan in five; Arizona and Florida in three each; and single-state leaders like Purdue, Kansas and UConn elsewhere. These distributions reflect geography, alumni networks and recent form. For anyone tracking where lines might move, spotting clusters of heavy money on one team can be a hint that bookmakers will adjust spreads or limits before tipoff.
First-round vulnerabilities and likely upset scenarios
Every March, a handful of lower seeds produce shocks and reshape the bracket. This year, pundits point to specific matchups that could swing either way. Some No. 12 and No. 11 seeds have the combination of hot form and matchup advantages that historically lead to upsets, while certain No. 14 and No. 13 teams also carry upset upside when they meet higher seeds that rely on guard play or three-point shooting consistency. Recognizing which favorites are overvalued and which underdogs match up well is central to smart bracket strategy.
Notable underdogs to watch
Among the long shots singled out by experts is Penn, the No. 14 seed that drew attention for its ability to upset in knockout settings; analysts specifically mentioned the Quakers as a plausible surprise in their opening game. Other potential challengers include mid-major champions and hot conference-tournament winners who ride momentum into the NCAA Tournament. A few specific matchups from the opening weekend—such as teams with strong interior defenders facing high-volume perimeter offenses—are particularly ripe for an upset if the favorite’s shot making cools.
How to approach the bracket and betting
Practical advice for the Round of 64 starts with prioritizing matchups over seed lines. Consider the point spread as a measure of market expectation and look for teams whose styles create mismatches: a slow, halfcourt defense can frustrate transition-heavy underdogs, while a relentless press can rattle a high-seeded team that lacks depth. Finally, factor in the public betting patterns — when a favorite draws heavy action statewide, contrarian bettors may find better value siding with a well-coached underdog in single-game plays.
Final thoughts
March’s chaos is part ritual, part statistical exercise: favorites like Duke will be monitored closely, but the tournament’s allure lies in the possibility that a few lower seeds will alter the narrative. With markets updated and the first slate set for March 19 and March 20, fans have critical windows to adjust picks based on matchup research, recent form and how public money has shifted lines. A disciplined approach that weighs odds, matchup nuance and momentum will serve both bracket players and bettors well as the drama unfolds.