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Geneva talks advance amid military pressure and market jitters
Geneva hosted indirect negotiations on Feb. 17, 2026 between the United States and Iran, officials said, yielding what both sides called a constructive outcome though no final agreement was reached. The talks occurred at the residence of an Omani envoy and were mediated by Oman. The sessions coincided with Iranian live-fire drills and a temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while Washington shifted additional forces toward the Middle East.
Who met and what they achieved
The second round involved Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. envoys including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, who engaged across mediators. Delegations said they agreed on a set of guiding principles to shape a possible nuclear accord. Iranian officials described the tone as “serious, constructive and positive.” U.S. sources reported progress but acknowledged significant unresolved items.
Next steps and drafting timeline
Both sides signaled an intent to convert broad understandings into concrete language. Iran said it would return in roughly two weeks with more detailed proposals. U.S. officials reiterated that several red lines remain central to further talks. Mediators cautioned that technical drafting and verification arrangements will be complex and time-consuming.
In my Deutsche Bank experience: why the pace matters
In my Deutsche Bank experience, political time and technical detail rarely move at the same speed. Who controls the drafting calendar will shape leverage in the coming weeks. The numbers speak clearly: delays in text can widen political risks and increase market premiums.
Military activity and maritime risk
Tehran announced that Revolutionary Guard units conducted live missile firings toward the Strait of Hormuz and temporarily closed the waterway for safety reasons. The Strait channels roughly 20 percent of global oil shipments, making any disruption a material market risk. Iranian state media framed the move as proof that strikes on Iran would carry broader consequences.
U.S. and regional military responses
Washington reinforced forces in the region, ordering the USS Gerald R. Ford toward the area to join an existing USS Abraham Lincoln task force. Additional guided-missile destroyers and fighter deployments were reported. U.S. forces recently shot down an Iranian drone that approached the Lincoln, illustrating how close encounters can escalate. Gulf Arab states warned that any attack could spark wider conflict.
Political signaling and strategic posture
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued warnings emphasizing asymmetric deterrence and rejecting attempts to “force the result of talks.” U.S. leaders reiterated that a military option remains on the table if diplomacy fails. From a regulatory standpoint, each side used public messaging to protect negotiating red lines while preserving diplomatic space.
Economic effects and verification challenges
Markets reacted to the combination of diplomacy and threat, with oil prices fluctuating during and after the talks. Traders weighed potential supply disruptions through the Strait against the prospect that a future agreement could lower long-term risk premiums. Negotiators discussed the role of the International Atomic Energy Agency in monitoring any accord; Iran and the IAEA held separate exchanges in Geneva on verification mechanics.
Key technical topics remain unresolved: uranium enrichment levels, stockpile management, centrifuge inventories, and schedules for phased rollbacks and inspections. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons and refuses to halt enrichment entirely. The negotiating task is to design verifiable limits that Tehran will accept while assuring U.S. and regional security concerns.
Outlook
Participants described the Feb. 17, 2026, round as progress rather than resolution. The immediate agenda includes exchanging draft texts, further IAEA consultations, and preparing for subsequent rounds. Chi lavora nel settore sa che military posturing and diplomatic drafting can advance in parallel. The pathway to agreement remains narrow but not closed, and future rounds will determine whether these talks produce enforceable, verifiable limits.