Two years after the United States imposed additional duties on Canadian exporters, the province of Ontario remains locked in a fiscal tug-of-war. Premier Doug Ford promised billions of taxpayer dollars during the February 2025 snap election to shelter local firms from the fallout of the Trump administration’s tariff regime. That pledge was later embedded in the provincial budget as the Protect Ontario account, a $5 billion reserve intended to flow to the most vulnerable manufacturers and exporters.
How much has actually been spent?
When the Finance Ministry was called to testify before the financial and economic committee at Queen’s Park on a Tuesday, opposition members pressed Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy for concrete figures. After several attempts to shift responsibility to the Ministry of Economic Development, Bethlenfalvy ultimately deferred to a senior civil servant. Deputy Minister of Finance Gadi Mayman responded that the program had received 36 applications totalling just under $100 million, of which 18 were approved. Those approved requests accounted for roughly $40 million in disbursements, a fraction of the original $5 billion target.
Opposition Liberal Finance Critic Stephanie Bowman seized on the numbers, stating, “Only $40 million in funding to help Ontario businesses. That’s 0.01 per cent of our GDP, so clearly the program is not working.” The Liberal bench argued that the modest outlay highlighted a systemic shortfall in the government’s response to the trade squeeze.
In defense, Bethlenfalvy highlighted the broader suite of supports that, together, amount to $30 billion. He pointed specifically to the Ontario Together Trade Fund (OTTF) which he said “has been well received by those who need the funds and want to pivot those businesses.” While the OTTF remains a separate mechanism, its inclusion in the $30 billion figure underscores the province’s attempt to present a holistic response.
Additional relief measures beyond Protect Ontario
Beyond the flagship fund, the government rolled out two complementary programmes aimed at shoring up firms facing the recent U.S. import ban on Canadian alcohol, dairy products, and motorcycles—measures that took effect after the September 15 tariff increase. The Ontario Financing Program (POFP) allocated $1 billion, offers loans that can cover payroll, lease obligations, and utilities. By expanding eligibility to the newly sanctioned sectors, the province hopes to keep workers on the payroll and encourage supply-chain reshoring.
The Ontario Together Trade Fund also received a boost, with an extra $150 million earmarked for grants or low-interest loans to small and medium-sized enterprises. Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade Vic Fedeli framed the expansion as a “decisive action to protect Ontario workers, businesses and communities from ongoing U.S. trade actions.”
Finance Minister Bethlenfalvy added, “By diversifying exports, unlocking free trade within Canada and providing targeted supports for trade-impacted sectors, we are strengthening Ontario’s economic resilience and competitiveness.” The combined narrative positions the POFP and OTTF as the back-stop to the relatively modest outputs of the Protect Ontario account.
The stalled Protect Ontario Investment Fund
In the 2026 provincial budget, the government announced a spin-off called the Protect Ontario Account Investment Fund. The new vehicle was slated to chase “new-economy enabling investment opportunities” in artificial intelligence, defence, advanced manufacturing, life sciences and critical minerals. However, by September 25, Bethlenfalvy admitted the fund had been pushed to the periphery of the ministry’s priorities. “I would say it’s not the top priority because we want to make sure that we continue to have powder available,” he told the committee, emphasizing the uncertainty facing the provincial economy.
Days later the minister clarified that the fund still exists “on paper” but is not being actively advanced. This pause reflects the challenge of balancing immediate cash assistance with longer-term strategic investments when fiscal pressure mounts.
What the numbers reveal about Ontario’s trade-war response
Putting the data together paints a stark picture: out of a $5 billion protective envelope, only $140 million has been spent Meanwhile, the POFP’s $1 billion loan pool and the OTTF’s $150 million grant-loan hybrid offer broader, but still limited, lifelines to firms wrestling with the September 15 tariff hike.
Critics argue that the province’s reliance on a handful of large-scale programmes masks the modest impact on the ground. Supporters, however, contend that the $30 billion of assorted measures—including the still-idle Investment Fund—demonstrates a multi-pronged strategy aimed at both immediate relief and future growth.
As Ontario navigates an uncertain trade environment, the effectiveness of these programmes will likely be judged by how quickly and broadly the next round of applications can be processed, and whether the promised strategic investments materialise before the fiscal year ends.
