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The journey towards the prestigious Oscars officially begins next week, as key organizations prepare to announce their nominations. These early declarations will not only spotlight standout films but also set the tone for an awards season filled with strong contenders, unexpected twists, and significant industry buzz.
The first wave of announcements features the Gotham Awards on December 1, followed by the New York Film Critics Circle on December 2, the National Board of Review on December 3, and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association on December 7. Additionally, the Film Independent Spirit Award nominations on December 2 and the Critics Choice nominations on December 5 will further contribute to the excitement.
Understanding the significance of major awards
Each organization carries its own unique identity and influence, but three in particular—the NYFCC, NBR, and LAFCA—are often referred to as the “Big Four” awards, with the National Society of Film Critics completing the group when it announces on January 3. Historically, only three films have managed to sweep all four awards: Schindler’s List (1993), L.A. Confidential (1997), and The Social Network (2010), with only Schindler’s List going on to win the Oscar for Best Picture.
As the awards season begins, all eyes will be on Paul Thomas Anderson’s highly anticipated film, One Battle After Another, perceived as a leading contender. The performance of this film across the various awards will be closely monitored, and any missteps could open the door for potential spoilers like Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet, featuring the talented Jessie Buckley, or Ryan Coogler’s gothic horror film, Sinners, starring a transformative Michael B. Jordan.
The changing landscape of the Gotham Awards
This year marks a significant shift for the Gotham Awards, which have eliminated the $35 million budget cap, allowing a broader range of films to be recognized. This change has previously led to a greater impact on the Oscars, with past winners like Spotlight, Moonlight, and Everything Everywhere All at Once all winning the Academy’s top honor. While the Gothams often spark dialogue around certain films, they do not always predict the ultimate winners, indicating which movies are generating buzz. Anderson’s film has achieved a record six nominations at the Gothams, much to the disappointment of independent filmmakers striving for visibility.
The NYFCC and its unpredictable choices
The New York Film Critics Circle is renowned in the industry for its prestigious standing, although its selections frequently diverge from the Academy’s final choices. This group tends to favor complex and textured narratives, often overlooking expected frontrunners. Over the past decade, they have only aligned with the Academy’s Best Picture winner once, with The Artist. Their voting can also be influenced by recency bias, as demonstrated when they selected American Hustle shortly after its screening.
This trend could bode well for James Cameron’s upcoming film, Avatar: Fire and Ash, which will screen for critics for the first time next week. Many NYFCC members have expressed enthusiasm for Anderson’s ensemble cast, potentially setting the stage for a successful awards campaign.
National Board of Review’s historical patterns
The National Board of Review often creates early momentum that tends to wane by the time the Oscar voting begins. Historically, the NBR has favored films from Warner Bros., particularly those directed by Clint Eastwood. Over the last four decades, a majority of NBR’s Best Film winners have received at least an Oscar nomination for Best Picture, although notable exceptions like Gods and Monsters and A Most Violent Year exist.
Last year proved particularly challenging for the NBR’s predictive accuracy, as only one major winner, Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain, went on to win the Oscar. The NBR’s selections can create excitement but may lead to disillusionment as the season progresses.
Prospects and urgency
The Los Angeles Film Critics Association is known for its preference for bold storytelling, with previous winners often gaining traction during the awards season. Last year, their pick, Anora, joined a lineage of films that triumphed at the Oscars. Furthermore, the Critics Choice Awards, selected by a larger voting body, typically reflect a broader industry consensus and can revitalize contenders after less favorable showings at other awards.
The first wave of announcements features the Gotham Awards on December 1, followed by the New York Film Critics Circle on December 2, the National Board of Review on December 3, and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association on December 7. Additionally, the Film Independent Spirit Award nominations on December 2 and the Critics Choice nominations on December 5 will further contribute to the excitement.0