The 2026 midterm elections are unfolding against a backdrop of widespread dissatisfaction with the nation’s direction and an unprecedented drop in Donald Trump’s approval rating. A fresh Pew Research Center survey of 5,062 U.S. adults – including 3,917 registered voters – was fielded between September 28 and October 4, 2026. The findings illuminate stark contrasts in enthusiasm between the two major parties, shifting loyalty among previous election voters, and a dominant focus on the economy as the top issue influencing the vote.
Democratic supporters exhibit higher motivation and engagement
Among registered voters who intend to back a candidate for the House of Representatives this November, Democrats now enjoy an eight-point national lead, with 44% favoring a Democratic contender versus 36% for a Republican. Motivation gaps are pronounced: 78% of Democratic backers say that which party controls Congress “really matters” a full nine points higher than their Republican counterparts. When asked whether they have given the election “a lot of thought,” Democrats outpace Republicans by 14 points, and 17 points more say they are “extremely motivated” to cast a ballot. These figures reverse the pattern observed before the 2022 midterms, when Republican supporters had a modest edge in perceived importance.
Trump’s approval dives to the lowest level of his second term
President Donald Trump now records a 30% approval rating – the lowest point of his current tenure and essentially identical to the figure recorded just before he left office in January 2021. Disapproval sits at 68%, representing a four-point decline since July. While 63% of all voters acknowledge Trump as a factor in their congressional choices, a larger share interpret their vote as a repudiation of his presidency (44%) rather than an endorsement (19%). Among those who voted for Trump in 2024, only 77% remain solidly behind Republican House candidates, compared with 87% of 2024 Kamala harris voters who continue to back Democratic challengers. Loyalty erosion is stark among disaffected Trump supporters: only 49% of those with an unfavorable view of the GOP still back Republican candidates, while 73% of Harris voters with a negative view of the Democratic Party remain aligned with Democratic nominees.
The economy dominates voter priorities across the aisle
Economic concerns dominate the issue landscape, with 84% of all registered voters stating that the economy is “very important” to their vote. The sentiment is even stronger among Democrats (88%) and remains high for Republicans (82%). Beyond the economy, voters rank the future of democracy (73%), healthcare (68%), education (62%), immigration (59%) and foreign policy (57%) as critical considerations. Notably, immigration is a more salient issue for Republicans (72% very important) than Democrats (53%), though the gap has narrowed as Democratic voters elevate the topic compared with four years ago. Energy policy (54%) and violent crime (52%) also feature among the top concerns.
The confluence of economic unease, declining presidential approval, and heightened partisan motivation sets the stage for a competitive 2026 midterm cycle, with Democratic candidates poised to capitalize on their supporters’ heightened engagement.
