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The municipal contest in Nice has entered a new phase following the publication of a high-profile poll and a string of late political moves. A study carried out by Cluster 17 for POLITICO places Eric Ciotti at 41% of voting intentions in the first round against incumbent Christian Estrosi at 31%. This survey, published on 17/02/, arrives alongside reports that several elected figures who previously worked with Estrosi are now set to appear on Ciotti’s list, signalling both numerical and symbolic shifts in the campaign.
The developments combine a statistical snapshot with real-world movement among local powerbrokers. The poll’s figures suggest a potential transfer of a substantial share of traditional center-right support toward a more right-leaning ticket. At the same time, the defections feed narratives about continuity, loyalty and tactical recalculation that voters are weighing as they approach the ballots. Together, these elements are recalibrating expectations for the race and for the future leadership of the Métropole Nice-Côte d’Azur.
What the poll reveals about voter shifts
The Cluster 17 study, conducted for POLITICO, offers a first public assessment of first-round preferences in Nice. With Ciotti at 41% and Estrosi at 31%, the data points to a substantial move among right-leaning voters. According to the survey, roughly 42% of those who supported Estrosi in now indicate support for Ciotti, a swing that analysts say reflects broader national tendencies where a segment of conservative voters gravitate toward parties perceived as harder on security and fiscal discipline. The poll’s methodology involved an online questionnaire and a sociodemographic adjustment; Cluster 17 reports a margin of error between 1.5 and 3.5 points.
Late defections and the local balance of power
Beyond numbers, tactical shifts among municipal and departmental councillors are amplifying the story. In mid-February a small number of prominent figures who had been part of Estrosi’s municipal majority announced they would join the list associated with Eric Ciotti. These include municipal appointees and a departmental councillor who until recently voted against Ciotti at the departmental level. Their migrations are being interpreted in different ways: by Ciotti’s camp as a consolidation of local support, and by Estrosi’s circle as evidence of opportunism or dissatisfaction with candidate selection decisions. The symbolic weight of such moves is magnified in a city where political networks and name recognition play important roles.
Profiles of notable joiners
Among those poised to appear on Ciotti’s list are former Estrosi allies who previously held delegation portfolios and who until recently campaigned on the mayor’s behalf. Their transitions are noteworthy because they include figures with public profiles in cultural and agricultural briefings. One high-profile cultural figure and longtime public personality is also reported to be joining Ciotti despite well-known differences on issues such as hunting and animal welfare. These personal stories highlight how local political allegiances can pivot rapidly in the run-up to municipal ballots.
How the left and smaller lists factor in
While the center-right duel dominates headlines, the left remains fragmented yet present. A coalition led by socialists, communists and greens rallies behind a candidate focused on public services and anti-surtourism measures, while a separate leftist list from a more radical formation emphasizes participatory democracy and social justice. Poll results give both left-leaning options room in the first round, alongside smaller lists representing ecological independents and sovereigntist or direct-democracy platforms. The multiplicity of lists raises the prospect of a multi-cornered second round where alliances and withdrawals will determine the ultimate outcome.
Metropolitan stakes and what is at risk
The winner of the Nice mayoralty will also preside over the Métropole Nice-Côte d’Azur, a political entity with significant resources and responsibilities across fifty communes and a budget measured in the hundreds of millions. For voters and political actors alike, the election is therefore about municipal services, urban projects and a broader administrative stewardship. Campaign themes such as security, fiscal management, public transport, and cultural policy are being framed by each camp as essential differentiators.
As the campaign moves forward, the interplay between public opinion data and high-profile personnel shifts will continue to shape expectations. Polls provide a useful snapshot, but the fluidity of local lists and the bargaining that occurs between rounds mean that momentum can change quickly. For observers focused on Nice, the convergence of a POLITICO-backed poll published on 17/02/ and the recent defections offers a compelling case study in how municipal contests can be transformed by both numbers and narratives.