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In a significant escalation of the Yemeni conflict, Saudi-backed National Shield Forces have mobilized in Aden following the departure of separatist leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi to the United Arab Emirates. This troop deployment signals a crucial shift in the ongoing power struggle involving the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a key separatist faction vying for control in southern Yemen.
Aidarous al-Zubaidi, prominent in the STC’s ambitions, fled Yemen amidst rising tensions with the internationally recognized government led by President Rashad al-Alimi. His refusal to attend peace talks in Riyadh prompted a swift response from Saudi Arabia, leading to renewed airstrikes in the al Dali province, a STC stronghold. These strikes reportedly caused civilian casualties, complicating the humanitarian situation in the region.
The facts
The Yemeni civil war has entered its second decade, with various factions engaged in a complex web of alliances and rivalries. Until recently, the STC, the Yemeni government, and coalition forces from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates fought together against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels controlling the capital, Sana’a. However, fractures in this coalition have emerged, particularly after the STC’s territorial gains in late 2026.
In December, the STC launched a rapid offensive, gaining significant territory in the south, alarming the Yemeni government and its Saudi allies. The UAE’s decision to withdraw its remaining forces from Yemen has strained relations further, resulting in open conflict between the STC and Saudi-backed factions.
The consequences
The political landscape shifted dramatically following al-Zubaidi’s ousting. President al-Alimi declared his removal for alleged high treason, intensifying hostilities and complicating future peace negotiations. Al-Zubaidi’s choice to avoid traveling to Riyadh for de-escalation talks has been seen as a challenge to the Saudi-led coalition’s authority.
In retaliation, the Saudi coalition has conducted what they describe as “limited preemptive strikes” against STC positions to prevent any military expansion. This military action has deepened the divide between factions, with STC officials alleging that the strikes caused unnecessary civilian casualties.
The current state of affairs in Aden
Aden, historically significant as the former capital of South Yemen, is now central to this escalating conflict. The city remains a critical base for the STC, which continues to assert its influence despite pressure from Saudi-backed forces. Recent reports indicate that al-Zubaidi may still be active in Aden, directing operations from within the city, even amid accusations of abandoning his post.
As the situation evolves, the STC has urged Saudi Arabia to halt its military operations, claiming that such actions undermine the fragile stability in the region. The coalition, however, insists that its operations are essential to maintaining control and preventing the STC from consolidating power in the south.
The implications for regional stability
The ongoing violence and political instability in Yemen present significant challenges for regional and international stakeholders. The conflict has resulted in a humanitarian crisis and threatens to destabilize the broader Gulf region. Diverging interests between Saudi Arabia and the UAE regarding their support for different factions add complexity to the situation.
As the conflict persists, the international community closely monitors developments, hoping for a resolution that can bring peace to a nation ravaged by years of war. The future of Yemen depends on the leaders’ ability to navigate these treacherous waters and pursue a path towards reconciliation.