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September has proven to be an exciting month for moviegoers, with unexpected successes generating significant buzz at the box office. Following the surprising triumphs of films like The Conjuring: Last Rites and Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle, industry experts are asking: can new releases maintain this upward trajectory?
As the weekend approaches, two notable films are making their debut.
Universal’s Him, an R-rated sports thriller produced by Jordan Peele, is anticipated to earn between $15 million and $18 million from approximately 3,100 theaters across North America. Meanwhile, Sony’s A Big Bold Beautiful Journey, a romantic drama starring Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell, is projected to garner between $8 million and $10 million from around 3,200 venues.
Current Box Office Landscape
Despite the arrival of these new releases, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle is expected to retain its dominance at the domestic box office. This action-packed adventure, distributed by Sony-owned Crunchyroll, exceeded initial expectations by earning an impressive $70 million during its opening weekend.
This figure establishes it as the highest-grossing debut for an anime film in history, significantly surpassing the previous record held by Pokémon: The First Movie, which debuted at $31 million in 1999.
While a decline in ticket sales is anticipated, Demon Slayer is still expected to generate substantial earnings in its second weekend, with estimates ranging from $21 million to $25 million.
New Releases: Expectations and Insights
The production budget for Him is set at $27 million, which suggests that the film could achieve profitability with modest box office performance. Directed by Justin Tipping, the film stars Marlon Wayans as a seasoned, nearly-retired quarterback who mentors a talented young player, portrayed by Tyriq Withers.
Marketed as a psychological thriller, viewers can expect a darker turn in the mentor-mentee dynamic, though reviews are currently under embargo.
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey
Conversely, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey serves as an alternative to the plethora of horror films currently dominating theaters.
This production has a considerably larger budget of $45 million and follows two singles, played by Robbie and Farrell, who meet at a wedding. Their serendipitous encounter leads them to revisit significant moments from their past, ultimately revealing how they arrived at their current situations. Directed by Kogonada, known for his work on Pachinko and After Yang, the film is based on a script by Seth Reiss, recognized for The Menu. However, the film’s critical reception has been mixed, reflected by a disappointing 52% average rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Variety’s Tomris Laffly described the film as a “dull affair” and noted its emotional detachment.
Box Office Trends and Future Releases
Analyzing the current state of the box office reveals that ticket sales are 4.4% higher compared to 2024; however, they still trail pre-pandemic figures from 2019 by 22.4%, according to Comscore. The upcoming fall season promises to introduce several potential blockbusters, including Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another featuring Leonardo DiCaprio, Disney’s sci-fi sequel Tron: Ares, and the highly-anticipated video game adaptation Mortal Kombat II. These titles, along with Thanksgiving releases such as Wicked: For Good and Zootopia 2, aim to attract large audiences and boost ticket sales closer to pre-COVID levels.
