The withdrawal of Carlos Alcaraz from Roland Garros has rearranged expectations on the men’s side, handing Jannik Sinner a clearer path to the title. After a run of four consecutive tournament victories, Sinner arrives in Paris as the tournament favorite, and the prospect of him completing the career Grand Slam looms large. Alcaraz’s absence — due to a persistent wrist injury sustained during the clay swing — removes the player many viewed as Sinner’s greatest obstacle.
That loss of a top adversary is not the only narrative. Sinner’s season includes a gutting five-set semifinal against Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open and a dramatic final in Paris last year against Alcaraz, when he squandered three match points. Coaches and commentators have since debated whether Sinner’s consistency in straight sets masks vulnerabilities in marathon encounters. Meanwhile, former players such as Marin Cilic and coaches like Patrick Mouratoglou have offered contrasting takes on Sinner’s chances now that Alcaraz has pulled out.
Sinner’s form and the long-match question
On clay and across surfaces this season, Jannik Sinner has looked imperious: the Italian’s recent streak of titles underlines a player in full momentum. Much of his dominance has come in short, decisive affairs where Sinner’s aggressive baseline game converts pressure into quick results. Yet critics point to a recurring theme when matches extend deep into the evening: a pattern of struggling to close out very long contests. That dynamic has become central to discussions about whether Sinner can navigate a Roland Garros draw filled with clay specialists and seasoned duelists.
Mouratoglou’s caution about long matches
On social media, coach Patrick Mouratoglou highlighted a striking statistic about matches that stretch beyond 3 hours 50 minutes: he noted that Sinner has lost nine out of nine such encounters, while Alcaraz had triumphed in 15 of 16. Mouratoglou also contrasted season-long metrics, claiming Sinner won roughly 88% of his matches in 2026 and 2026 without dropping a set, compared with about 70% for Alcaraz in the same category. These figures were offered to suggest the issue is less physical than psychological: when a player is rarely forced into extended problem-solving on court, the experience needed to turn the tide late in matches can be lacking.
Other contenders in a more open draw
Even with Alcaraz absent, a title for Sinner is far from guaranteed. Marin Cilic has pointed to rivals who might benefit most from a more open field, naming Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud as realistic threats. Zverev’s recent consistency — deep runs on clay and a strong showing in Madrid — suggests he can be a factor, while Ruud’s affinity for the Paris courts and his proven clay-court form make him a perennial danger. The draw’s reshuffling also gifts motivation to a handful of other challengers who can exploit momentum and match-ups in the later rounds.
Veterans, clay specialists and dark horses
Beyond Zverev and Ruud, the draw still contains heavyweights who know how to win on the biggest stages. Novak Djokovic remains a live candidate given his history at Roland Garros and his capacity to thrive in long, high-pressure battles. Stefanos Tsitsipas and other clay-capable players also loom as tactical threats. Younger or less heralded names can spring surprises in a two-week event where form, fitness and draw alignment can rapidly change the landscape. As Marin Cilic observed, with Alcaraz off the list, the incentive for everyone else to seize the chance has increased.
Path to a first Roland Garros crown
For Jannik Sinner, the route to a maiden French Open trophy is defined by both opportunity and unfinished business. He came closest last year, holding match points in the final before Alcaraz rallied; in an earlier Paris campaign he led a match two sets to one against Alcaraz only to be overturned, and his debut deep run in 2026 saw him beat Alexander Zverev before falling to Rafael Nadal, who went on to collect another title. Those past near-misses now serve as evidence that Sinner has the form and experience to go all the way, provided he can navigate the long-match scenarios that have previously cost him.
As Roland Garros unfolds, the central question is whether Sinner’s recent dominance in quick matches can translate into sustained success across an exhausting fortnight. If he converts his form into a title, he will achieve the rare feat of completing the career Grand Slam. If he falters in extended battles, the absence of Alcaraz will feel less decisive and the trophy could slip to a ready, hungry rival. Either way, the tournament promises drama as contenders test both bodies and minds on clay.
