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The box office landscape this October is marked by a significant clash between the fervor surrounding Taylor Swift and the latest offering from Dwayne Johnson. Swift’s highly anticipated release, titled The Official Release Party of a Show Girl, is projected to secure the top spot this weekend, having already grossed approximately $15.8 million on its opening day across 3,702 theaters.
In contrast, Johnson’s new drama, The Smashing Machine, appears to be struggling, underperforming against its initial expectations.
This is not the first time Swift has made headlines at the box office. Nearly two years ago, her concert documentary Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour debuted with an impressive $96 million, marking it as the second-highest October opening ever.
While The Official Release Party of a Show Girl may not replicate that level of blockbuster success, it offers a unique flavor to the cinematic experience. This release was announced only two weeks prior, with minimal marketing beyond her dedicated fanbase.
Its theatrical run is limited to just three days, concluding this Sunday.
The unique experience of Swift’s release
In true Swiftian fashion, ticket prices for this event are set at $12, strategically positioned above the national average but still competitive in major cities.
This pricing does not apply to enhanced formats like Dolby Cinema, which come with additional costs. The event celebrates her newly released 12th studio album and features a blend of music videos, behind-the-scenes glimpses, and family-friendly lyric videos, all packed into an 89-minute runtime.
Swift encourages her fans to embrace the moment, stating that while dancing is optional, it is highly encouraged.
Fan reception and box office predictions
The response from audiences has been overwhelmingly positive, with early indicators suggesting an opening weekend gross between $25 million and $30 million.
A survey by CinemaScore revealed an impressive A+ rating from attendees, reflecting the high expectations and excitement surrounding the event.
Conversely, The Smashing Machine, an A24 production, has garnered approximately $2.6 million from its opening day and previews, a disappointing figure compared to initial projections. Positioned as the primary rival to Swift’s event, this biographical film about UFC has not managed to captivate audiences similarly. Johnson, known for his action-packed roles, is venturing into more dramatic territory with this film, and its weak box office performance raises concerns about its viability.
Challenges faced by Johnson’s film
The projections for The Smashing Machine suggested an opening of over $8 million, which now appears unlikely. This film risks becoming Johnson’s lowest opening as a lead actor, a title currently held by the thriller Faster, which debuted at $8.5 million over a decade ago. With a production budget reaching $50 million, it ties with A24’s most expensive films to date, alongside last year’s Civil War.
Mixed reviews and the impact of marketing
Despite a vigorous promotional campaign led by Johnson and co-star Emily Blunt, along with a notable premiere at the Venice Film Festival where director Benny Safdie received accolades, audience reception has been lukewarm. While critics have offered positive reviews, the CinemaScore rating of B- indicates that viewers were not as enthusiastic.
Meanwhile, other releases are also making their mark this weekend. Warner Bros.’ comedy epic One Battle After Another has reported earnings of $3.3 million, reflecting a decline of 43% from its opening day. However, this film continues to benefit from strong word-of-mouth and retains a majority of its IMAX screens, which is crucial for its recovery given its hefty production costs exceeding $130 million.
Other notable releases and trends
Universal’s Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie is facing challenges, with a projected $4.7 million second-weekend take, indicating a significant drop of 66%. Although family films often sustain longer runs, this animated feature hasn’t translated its streaming success into box office draws effectively.
Additionally, the horror sequel The Conjuring: Last Rites remains steady in the top five, accruing $1.2 million and maintaining a domestic total of $164.9 million. Disney’s re-release of Avatar: The Way of Water is also in play, amassing about $1.1 million but struggling to compete with the new contenders.
This is not the first time Swift has made headlines at the box office. Nearly two years ago, her concert documentary Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour debuted with an impressive $96 million, marking it as the second-highest October opening ever. While The Official Release Party of a Show Girl may not replicate that level of blockbuster success, it offers a unique flavor to the cinematic experience. This release was announced only two weeks prior, with minimal marketing beyond her dedicated fanbase. Its theatrical run is limited to just three days, concluding this Sunday.0
