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Understanding the budget bill’s implications
The ongoing debate surrounding President Donald Trump’s proposed budget bill has significant implications for health insurance coverage, particularly for young Americans. As the House Ways and Means Committee chair, Rep. Jason Smith, R-Mo., highlights the contentious discussions over SALT deductions and Medicaid cuts, the stakes are high.
A recent study released by the White House estimates that if the budget bill fails, between 8.2 to 9.2 million more Americans could find themselves without health insurance, a scenario that could disproportionately affect the younger population.
The alarming rise in uninsured rates
According to the White House Council of Economic Advisers, the number of uninsured individuals could rise from approximately 27 million in 2025 to around 36 million if the proposed budget does not pass. This increase would bring the uninsured rate alarmingly close to the nearly 50 million people who lacked coverage before the Affordable Care Act (ACA) was implemented in 2010.
For young adults, who often rely on employer-sponsored insurance or marketplace plans, this potential rise in uninsured rates is particularly concerning.
Economic factors at play
The memo from the White House outlines that the expiration of the 2017 Trump tax cuts in 2026 could trigger a moderate to severe recession.
Such economic downturns typically lead to reduced consumer spending and higher unemployment rates. The advisers predict that unemployment could rise by four percentage points, resulting in approximately 6.5 million job losses. With many of these jobs offering employer-sponsored insurance, the loss of coverage could leave millions of young adults without access to necessary healthcare services.
Vulnerable populations at risk
Particularly vulnerable segments of the population, including gig workers, non-citizens, and early retirees, are expected to be disproportionately affected by these budget cuts. The White House projects that without the passage of the budget bill, Medicaid and ACA subsidized plan enrollment could experience significant friction, leading to an estimated 500,000 to 1 million individuals losing or failing to gain coverage.
For young adults who often work in less stable employment situations, the loss of affordable health insurance could have dire consequences.
What’s next for young Americans?
As House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., pushes to get the “One Big Beautiful Act” through the House, the future of health insurance for millions hangs in the balance. The proposed bill, which includes over $5 trillion in tax cuts, aims to fulfill many of Trump’s campaign promises but raises concerns about the long-term implications for healthcare access. For Gen-Z and young adults, staying informed and engaged in this legislative process is crucial, as the outcomes could shape their access to healthcare for years to come.
