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The recent announcement of the United States’ new National Security Strategy (NSS) has raised significant concerns in the Middle East, particularly in Israel. Once a fundamental aspect of U.S. foreign policy, the relationship with Israel is now undergoing a notable transformation. This shift moves from a framework based on shared values to one centered around mutual interests. Such a change prompts critical questions about the future of U.S.-Israel relations amid a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.
Traditionally, American administrations framed their support for Israel through democratic values and common ideologies. However, the Trump administration marked a clear shift in this approach. The new strategy adopts a stark realism, suggesting that the security of Israel is now perceived as an interest rather than a moral obligation. This fundamental change could have significant implications for Israel’s regional strategies and alliances.
Shifting paradigms: From shared values to self-interest
The essence of the NSS signifies a departure from the values-based diplomacy that characterized previous administrations. Earlier U.S. foreign policy aimed to promote democracy and support allies like Israel on principled grounds. In contrast, the current strategy reflects a more transactional mindset. The document explicitly states that the affairs of other nations matter only when they threaten American interests. This pragmatic approach indicates a considerable recalibration of how the U.S. engages with its allies.
The consequences of a transactional approach
As the NSS prioritizes interests, the implications for Israel are profound. The strategy incorporates Israel’s security as one of several interests, placing it alongside Gulf nations and other Arab states. This development raises alarm among Israeli officials, who fear that their country may no longer enjoy the unwavering support that characterized past U.S. administrations. The lack of a commitment to maintain Israel’s qualitative military edge (commonly referred to as the QME) further underscores the diminishing focus on shared values.
Furthermore, the new strategy critiques previous attempts to promote democracy in regions where it may not be feasible, indicating a significant departure from the belief that the U.S. should universally support democratic movements. This shift suggests that Israel’s identity as the only democracy in the Middle East may no longer ensure the same level of support it once received.
The complex relationship with Trump
Another layer of complexity arises from the relationship between President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. While many in Israel view Trump as an ally, the reality is more intricate. Both leaders share a populist-nationalist vision, prioritizing power over principles. This alignment raises concerns about the sustainability of their partnership, especially if Israel’s interests diverge from those of the U.S.
Political implications for Israel
Trump’s administration has made gestures to support Israel, such as recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights and relocating the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem. However, the NSS reveals a more profound reality: should Israel cease to serve an immediate self-interest for the U.S., it risks being treated like any other ally. This perspective could lead to unpredictable shifts in U.S. support, particularly as American public opinion regarding Israel evolves.
Recent polling indicates a decline in support for Israel among various demographics in the U.S., especially among younger voters and those leaning towards isolationist perspectives. This trend could further complicate Israel’s position if it continues to rely heavily on the current administration’s favor.
Long-term consequences for U.S.-Israel relations
Without a moral framework underpinning U.S. foreign policy, Israel faces a precarious situation. Historically, unwavering American support was rooted in shared democratic ideals and mutual commitments. However, by aligning closely with a party that emphasizes self-interest over democratic principles, Netanyahu risks compromising Israel’s long-term security.
The future of U.S.-Israel relations will likely depend on the perception that the alliance is transactional rather than based on enduring values. As the U.S. shifts its focus towards a worldview defined by competition for resources, the question remains: how will Israel navigate this evolving landscape? The decisions made by Israeli leadership in the years ahead will be crucial in determining the nature and strength of its alliance with the United States.