U.S. Military Expansion Near Venezuela Amid Rising Tensions

UPDATE AT 10:00 AM: The United States has escalated military operations near Venezuela, raising concerns about a potential coup or invasion. This increase follows a series of attacks on vessels suspected of drug trafficking off Venezuela’s coast, resulting in numerous casualties.

President Donald Trump’s administration has openly expressed its aim to remove President Nicolás Maduro from power. Trump has labeled Maduro a drug lord, accusing his government of flooding the U.S. with narcotics and releasing prisoners into American society. These allegations have intensified speculation about a possible military intervention.

The facts

The Trump administration has discussed the potential for ground operations in Venezuela. Experts, however, warn that such military action could be complicated. William LeoGrande, an expert on Latin American politics, indicates that the U.S. has never conducted a military invasion south of Panama, suggesting that Venezuela’s size and military capabilities present significant challenges.

Recent military strikes

Since early September, U.S. forces have targeted at least nine vessels alleged to be involved in drug trafficking. The latest strikes, confirmed by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, resulted in the deaths of 37 individuals. Critics argue that the U.S.

has not provided sufficient evidence to support these claims, raising concerns about potential violations of U.S. and international law.

Trump has indicated that he has authorized covert operations by the CIA within Venezuela, a decision that has drawn sharp criticism from Maduro.

Additionally, the U.S. has offered a $50 million bounty for information leading to Maduro’s arrest.

The consequences

The buildup of U.S. military assets in the region includes a naval task force of eight warships and a squadron of fighter jets stationed in Puerto Rico, alongside over 6,000 personnel.

Experts like Geoff Ramsey from the Atlantic Council express doubts about the feasibility of a successful invasion. They highlight Venezuela’s substantial weapons stockpiles and the presence of armed groups, which would likely resist any foreign military intervention.

Comparative conflicts

Ramsey warns that a U.S. intervention could mirror the chaos in Libya following the ouster of Muammar Gaddafi. The power vacuum in Libya resulted in widespread violence and civil strife, a scenario that could unfold in Venezuela if military action occurs.

The Venezuelan government has demonstrated its ability to defend against external threats, notably through its advanced air defense systems. Any U.S. offensive would face significant obstacles, as the Venezuelan military largely remains loyal to Maduro.

Strategic considerations

While the U.S. has a history of intervening in Latin American affairs, the unique dynamics in Venezuela complicate the likelihood of a successful regime change. The CIA has previously orchestrated regime changes in various countries, but current challenges may inhibit its effectiveness. According to LeoGrande, the agency could struggle to undermine the military’s loyalty to Maduro.

Trump’s strategy appears to focus on portraying a tough stance against drug trafficking rather than pursuing outright military intervention. Instead of attempting a coup, he may increase strikes against drug vessels, aiming to claim success based on the disruption of drug operations.

President Donald Trump’s administration has openly expressed its aim to remove President Nicolás Maduro from power. Trump has labeled Maduro a drug lord, accusing his government of flooding the U.S. with narcotics and releasing prisoners into American society. These allegations have intensified speculation about a possible military intervention.0

President Donald Trump’s administration has openly expressed its aim to remove President Nicolás Maduro from power. Trump has labeled Maduro a drug lord, accusing his government of flooding the U.S. with narcotics and releasing prisoners into American society. These allegations have intensified speculation about a possible military intervention.1