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The Caribbean island of Cuba is experiencing a severe humanitarian and economic squeeze as intensified U.S. measures have disrupted fuel flows, industry and basic services. International organizations including the United Nations have warned that food and water supplies are under threat, and several regional governments such as Mexico and Chile have offered emergency assistance. Despite those offers, economists caution that limited aid will not reverse the structural impact of an evolving embargo that has already reduced electricity production and strained supply chains.
Travel advisories reflect the situation on the ground: the Canadian government updated guidance on February 11, , advising citizens to avoid non-essential travel because of unpredictable fuel and power shortages. At the same time, reporting dated February 13, highlighted UN concerns that the pressure could push the population toward a serious humanitarian crisis. The dynamics are both political and material, with implications reaching far beyond the island’s borders.
How the energy squeeze is unraveling daily life
At the heart of the emergency is an effective halt to consistent energy imports that previously came, in part, via Venezuela and other channels. The result has been widespread rolling outages and, at times, unexpected blackouts lasting more than a day. The decline in power availability has a cascading effect: industrial plants cut or stop production, cold chains for food preservation fail, water pumping and sewage systems falter, and hospitals and clinics operate under constrained conditions. Even where hotels and resorts maintain operations with backup generators, dwindling fuel reserves make such solutions increasingly fragile.
Geopolitical aims and the broader strategic picture
Observers describe the measures not simply as traditional sanctions but as a deliberate campaign aimed at weakening the governing regime and reducing foreign influence on the island. Analysts argue Washington’s actions are intended to limit the foothold of external partners—chiefly China and Russia—in a region the U.S. has long considered within its strategic orbit. Beyond regime politics, the operation is shaped by broader economic competition: the island’s natural resources are emerging as a key variable in global supply chains tied to the green transition.
Nickel: from industrial metal to strategic raw material
Cuba’s large nickel reserves have taken on renewed importance. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, proven reserves are estimated at about 5.5 million tons, roughly 7–8% of the world total—placing Cuba among the top five countries by known reserves. Nickel’s role has shifted from traditional steel and alloy uses to becoming a fundamental input for high-energy-density lithium-ion batteries. The International Energy Agency projects a roughly 250% rise in nickel demand between and 2035, a reflection of the rapid expansion of electric vehicle production and energy storage systems.
Supply chain stakes and global competition
China controls the majority of global nickel refining capacity, and Chinese firms are active in Cuban mining projects, especially in regions such as Moa. That integration has raised alarms in Washington about strategic dependencies in the critical-minerals market. The U.S. currently imports a significant share of its nickel, and the intensifying competition for secure supplies is a central driver of the policy approach. Disrupting Cuba’s mining and processing operations through an energy chokehold not only affects the island but also reverberates across global battery supply networks.
Possible trajectories and social consequences
Several scenarios for the island’s near future are now widely debated. One plausible outcome is a protracted period of hardship in which the regime endures but living standards decline sharply—a form of slow-motion, controlled collapse. Another pathway could involve elite fractures and negotiated openings; alternatively, deepening shortages could spark widescale unrest and migration. The demographic signal is already striking: reports indicate that roughly 18% of the population has left in the past three years, amplifying long-term economic and social vulnerabilities.
External actors such as China and Russia are expected to provide targeted support to prevent a sudden collapse, yet their assistance is unlikely to restore full economic normality. Meanwhile, the U.S. approach aims to sustain pressure without military intervention, using financial and energy tools to reshape access to strategic materials. The intersection of humanitarian stress, strategic rivalry over nickel, and internal demographic shifts makes Cuba a focal point of 21st-century geopolitical competition.