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The political landscape in Venezuela is undergoing a swift realignment that touches security partnerships, international legal collaboration and control of natural resources. In recent weeks Caracas has effectively curtailed the visible footprint of Cuban personnel inside Venezuela, while the Venezuelan attorney general announced intentions to pursue formal criminal cooperation with authorities in the United States. At the same time, vast tracts of the southern jungle remain under the de facto control of armed groups profiting from illegal mining, presenting a parallel challenge to state authority.
These developments come in the wake of the high-profile operation on 3 January, which resulted in the capture of the former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. That operation and its fallout have accelerated diplomatic pressure from Washington, prompted reassessments in Caracas, and intensified scrutiny of resource extraction and foreign influence across the country.
Recasting security and humanitarian ties with Cuba
For decades the Caracas-Havana axis blended security cooperation with extensive social programs: Cuban intelligence advisers and elite security personnel were embedded within Venezuelan forces, while thousands of Cuban professionals—doctors, nurses and trainers—supported health and education initiatives. Under the new configuration, many of those Cuban advisers and medical staff have been ordered to withdraw, and Venezuelan officials are increasingly relying on local protection teams.
This shift is partly a response to sustained pressure from the United States, which sought the reduction of military and intelligence links between the two governments. Publicly, interim President Delcy Rodríguez has maintained rhetorical support for the historic partnership with Cuba and reiterated that Nicolás Maduro remains the legitimate president, but operational changes indicate a meaningful erosion of Havana’s overt presence.
What remains and what may be covert
Even as official Cuban deployments decline, analysts warn that some covert intelligence elements or essential specialists may remain under various statuses to monitor evolving political conditions. Meanwhile, certain Cuban health workers and educators still operate in specialized institutions, including training programs for Venezuelan security forces, suggesting a gradual rather than total disentanglement.
Toward formal judicial collaboration with the United States
The Venezuelan attorney general, Tarek William Saab, has publicly signaled his intention to establish formal mechanisms for international penal cooperation with U.S. counterparts. Saab described prior exchanges between prosecutors as part of intergovernmental dialogue and said that a formalized framework will be pursued when conditions allow. He pointed to an existing Directorate for international penal cooperation that has worked with other governments and cited previous operational results.
Saab also linked the prospect of strengthened judicial ties to domestic measures in Caracas: he urged the United States to lift unilateral coercive sanctions once a newly approved amnesty law is implemented. That conditionality frames a negotiated pathway in which legal cooperation and sanctions relief could be coordinated as political and legal processes advance.
Practical and political limits
Despite declarations, the path to comprehensive judicial collaboration will be complex. Political sensitivities on both sides—concerns about sovereignty in Caracas and accountability in Washington—will shape what forms of cooperation are feasible and which cases qualify for shared investigation, extradition or evidence exchanges.
Illegal mining and armed groups: the resource governance crisis
Beyond diplomatic reorientation, Venezuela faces a profound internal security and environmental crisis in its south. Illegal mining operations have expanded to industrial proportions in remote jungle regions where the state exercises limited control. These operations are frequently dominated by violent militias and criminal networks that extract gold and other minerals, using armed force to secure territory, traffic resources and fund parallel economies.
The combination of lucrative illicit extraction, weak state presence and rugged terrain creates a persistent zone of impunity. Efforts to reassert state authority are complicated by entrenched networks that pay for armed protection, manipulate local economies and exploit recruitment pools, including vulnerable communities.
Consequences for governance and diplomacy
The intertwining of foreign policy shifts and domestic insecurity complicates international responses. While Washington presses for reduced military ties between Caracas and Havana and explores judicial collaboration, the reality on the ground—where armed groups are the principal power brokers in resource-rich zones—means diplomatic gains may not translate immediately into improved governance or environmental protection.
In sum, Venezuela’s trajectory now combines a recalibration of external alliances, tentative overtures toward institutional cooperation with the United States, and a stubborn internal struggle over natural resources. How these strands interact will determine whether reforms yield a sustained restoration of state control or simply reshuffle influence among new and existing actors.