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Summer heat waves are on the horizon
This summer, Canadians can expect a significant rise in temperatures, especially across southern British Columbia and Alberta. As we transition from a La Niña phase to a neutral ENSO pattern, the uncertainty in seasonal forecasts increases.
However, many computer models are predicting a hot summer for a large portion of North America. This could mean heat waves and even heat domes, particularly in July and August, which may worsen existing drought conditions.
Wildfire risks escalate
With the anticipated heat comes the heightened risk of wildfires.
The early start to the fire season has already raised concerns, and as temperatures soar, the likelihood of active fire outbreaks increases. Northern British Columbia is expected to experience near-normal precipitation, but ongoing fires and smoke will remain a significant issue throughout the summer.
The dry conditions could lead to a very active fire season, making it crucial for residents to stay informed and prepared.
Thunderstorms and urban flooding
As we move into the summer months, thunderstorms are likely to become more frequent, particularly in central Canada.
While daytime temperatures may remain seasonal, the increased humidity in July and August will lead to warmer nights, potentially causing discomfort for those without air conditioning. Heavy downpours during thunderstorms could result in localized flooding, especially in major urban areas like Toronto and Montreal, which experienced significant flash floods last year.
Atlantic Canada: a milder summer ahead
In contrast, Atlantic Canada is expected to enjoy a milder summer with frequent showers and thunderstorms. The Maritime provinces were fortunate last year, avoiding a direct hit from hurricanes despite an active season. NOAA forecasts another busy year, predicting up to 19 named storms and 6 to 10 hurricanes in the Atlantic.
While it remains uncertain if any will impact Canada directly, residents should stay vigilant from late August through September.
Looking north: cooler temperatures
For those in Canada’s far north, the summer may bring near-seasonal or even below-seasonal temperatures after a warm start in June. This could help limit Arctic ice loss, with above-normal precipitation expected in these regions. However, the southern Northwest Territories and Nunavut may experience hotter conditions, raising concerns about wildfires in these areas as well.
As summer approaches, Canadians should prepare for a season marked by heat, storms, and the potential for wildfires. Staying informed and proactive will be key to navigating the challenges that lie ahead.
