In a stunning turn of events, David Crowley the Milwaukee County Executive has emerged victorious in the Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor. This triumph is all the more remarkable given that Crowley had dropped out of the race just five weeks prior, citing insurmountable odds. His resurgence is a testament to the volatility and unpredictability of modern politics.
The primary race was marked by a series of dramatic twists and turns, including the sudden exits of other prominent contenders such as Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. Crowley’s re-entry into the race, backed by the endorsement of the popular outgoing governor, Tony Evers proved to be a game-changer. This article delves into the factors that contributed to Crowley’s unexpected victory and the implications for Wisconsin’s political landscape.
The Unpredictable Nature of the Race
The Wisconsin governor’s race was characterized by an unusually high level of volatility. Polls conducted in late July showed a significant portion of the electorate undecided, with a notable 16% supporting Barnes, who would soon withdraw from the race. The remaining voters were split between Crowley and state Rep. Francesca Hong a democratic socialist who had been leading in the polls.
The dynamic nature of the race meant that many voters made their decisions in the final days leading up to the primary. A Marquette University Law School poll conducted from July 22-27 revealed that a third of primary voters were undecided. This indecision played a crucial role in Crowley’s victory, as these voters ultimately swung in his favor.
The Electability Factor
As the primary race intensified, Francesca Hong came under increased scrutiny for some of her past controversial positions. During a series of national interviews, she was pressed to clarify and walk back certain statements, raising concerns about her electability in the general election. This scrutiny provided an opening for Crowley, who positioned himself as a more mainstream candidate.
The endorsement of Tony Evers who barnstormed the state with Crowley, further bolstered his campaign. Evers’ support was instrumental in convincing risk-averse voters to back Crowley over Hong. As Madison voter Ali Plummer noted, while she supported many of Hong’s policies, she ultimately voted for Crowley because she believed he had a better chance of winning the general election.
The Power of Television Advertising
Despite the increasing fragmentation of the media landscape, traditional television advertising played a pivotal role in Crowley’s victory. Crowley’s campaign and allied outside groups spent $4 million on ads after he re-entered the race. In contrast, Hong’s campaign and supporting groups spent less than half a million dollars on ads, none of which aired on broadcast or cable TV.
This disparity in ad spending highlights the enduring influence of television in shaping voter perceptions. Even in an era of digital media, old-fashioned TV ads have not outlived their usefulness in competitive statewide contests.
The Broader Implications
Crowley’s victory has significant implications for the Democratic Party in Wisconsin and beyond. It underscores the importance of electability in primary races and the potential impact of endorsements from popular figures. Additionally, the race serves as a cautionary tale for progressive candidates, highlighting the challenges they may face in appealing to a broader electorate.
As Crowley prepares to face the Republican nominee in the general election, the lessons from this primary will undoubtedly shape his campaign strategy. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Crowley can translate his primary success into a victory in the general election.
