The Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen has launched a swift campaign that has taken control of several coastal towns and islands along the Red Sea. This surge follows the United States and Israel’s February raid on Iranian facilities, a move that set off a chain reaction among Tehran’s regional partners. Within weeks, militias in Lebanon and Iraq opened fire on Israeli and American targets, while the Houthis, who had largely watched from the sidelines, decided to enter the fray in full force.
By mid-July the rebels captured the port of Hudaydah and a cluster of islands that sit at the entrance to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Control of the strait gives them leverage over one of the world’s most important chokepoints for crude oil and container traffic. Analysts estimate that up to a fifth of global energy shipments pass through this narrow waterway, meaning any disruption can reverberate through international markets.
Strategic gains and their economic ripple
From the newly-taken coastal bases, Houthi forces have launched missile and drone attacks against Saudi oil infrastructure, including a strike on the Yanbu refinery complex and reported attempts on an F-15 fighter jet. In response, Riyadh has increased air raids on Houthi-held highlands, but the rebel militia continues to press eastward toward the oil-rich Marib province. If successful, this would represent the largest territorial expansion by the Houthis in more than a decade and would place them directly above some of Yemen’s most valuable hydrocarbon reserves.
These hostilities have already forced Saudi Arabia to reroute a substantial portion of its oil exports. With the Bab al-Mandeb under threat, Saudi tankers now travel the longer, costlier route that skirts the Cape of Good Hope, adding up to 30 days to a voyage that normally takes two weeks. The extra distance inflates freight costs and pushes crude prices upward; analysts warn that a month-long suspension of the kingdom’s east-west pipeline – recently damaged by a drone strike blamed on Iranian-aligned militia – could shave 120 million barrels from the global supply and lift Brent to $120 per barrel.
International reaction and the limits of US involvement
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has placed repeated calls to President Donald Trump, urging direct American airstrikes against the Houthis. According to multiple sources, Trump rejected the request, maintaining a policy of providing only intelligence, targeting data, and logistical support. In an interview in Ireland, the president noted that the Houthis “don’t want us to go after them” and suggested that the issue was largely a diplomatic dispute with Saudi Arabia rather than a trigger for kinetic action.
The United States’ reluctance to engage directly has left Riyadh looking elsewhere for assistance. Saudi officials have appealed to France, Britain, Pakistan and Egypt for advanced air-defence systems as missile interceptors dwindle. Meanwhile, the United Nations warns that more than 100,000 Yemenis have been displaced by the latest fighting, adding to a humanitarian crisis that already affects roughly 22 million people.
Regional experts argue that the Houthi push is not an isolated rebellion but part of a broader Iranian strategy to pressure Saudi Arabia and, by extension, the United States. By threatening the Bab al-Mandeb Tehran can force Saudi oil to flow through alternative routes, thereby exposing the kingdom’s reliance on both the strait and the Hormuz passage. The longer-term implication is a protracted front in the wider Iran-Saudi rivalry, one that could keep global energy markets volatile for months to come.
