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3 June 2026

How a near-term Iran framework could reshape Gulf diplomacy and security

President Trump is pursuing a draft agreement with Iran that would pause hostilities, require the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and launch a 60-day process to negotiate enduring terms

On May 26, 2026, officials and regional mediators signaled that Washington and Tehran are approaching a shared outline for ending the recent hostilities. The emerging document, described by some U.S. spokespeople as an MOU and by others as a framework, would formalize a temporary pause and a timetable for completing a broader settlement. Supporters say the move is intended to stem economic disruption across the Gulf and stabilize global energy markets; critics argue it may leave some major issues unresolved.

The proposed paper reportedly would extend the existing ceasefire and create a mechanism for further negotiation over core disputes during a defined window. Under the draft, both sides would have at least a 60-day period to negotiate outstanding points before any final accord is concluded. That interval is meant to produce verifiable commitments on issues that range from maritime security to financial sanctions. President Trump and his team have said negotiators are close—some aides called the draft nearly finished—while also warning they will not accept a deal they consider inadequate.

Key elements of the draft framework

The draft reportedly contains several concrete actions intended to reduce immediate risk: Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to unencumbered navigation and remove naval obstacles, and the United States would lift its port blockade imposed in mid-April once compliance is verified. The document also contemplates clearing any mines in the shipping lanes and setting procedures for maritime traffic. On economics, press accounts suggest the MOU sets out a roadmap for negotiating sanctions relief, including the potential unfreezing of substantial Iranian funds—reports have cited figures such as $25 billion as part of the conversation—although the U.S. side frames such relief as conditional on verified steps during the 60-day phase.

Nuclear provisions deferred to a final settlement

Crucially, the MOU reportedly does not lock nuclear constraints into its text. Instead, negotiators agreed to leave atomic matters for the follow-on talks that the memorandum of understanding would launch. U.S. officials claim Tehran has verbally accepted long-term suspension of enrichment activities and offered to send for reprocessing abroad its 400-kilogram stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium, but such understandings remain informal pending a binding agreement. The deferral has alarmed some observers who worry it makes it hard to judge whether the war achieved the U.S. objective of preventing any Iranian pathway to a weapon.

Regional diplomacy and the push for compromise

Multiple Gulf and regional capitals pressed both sides to compromise, fearing that continued escalation would damage their economies and energy infrastructure. Mediators including Pakistan and Qatar have been active: Pakistani military officials played an organizing role in shuttle diplomacy, while Qatari interlocutors discussed the release of more than $6 billion in Iranian funds at issue in recent talks. Leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Türkiye and Jordan reportedly backed the draft in private exchanges with Washington, signaling a broad regional interest in de-escalation even where governments remain wary of Tehran.

Israeli concerns and Lebanese fronts

Israel, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has been cautious about clauses that would apply the ceasefire to Lebanon and to groups in Tehran’s network of proxies. The draft appears to extend the conflict-termination language to regional fronts, a move Iran insisted on to protect its partners in what Tehran calls the Axis of Resistance. U.S. officials have said that the agreement would not preclude Israeli action if Hezbollah attempted to rearm or initiate new operations, but Israeli leaders remain skeptical of provisions that leave nuclear issues to later negotiation and of any text they see as constraining their freedom to act against perceived threats in Lebanon.

Obstacles ahead and next steps

Despite high-level momentum, the draft still faces opposition from hardliners on both sides and practical risks. Late-night U.S. military actions characterized by officials as defensive strikes against missile sites and mine-laying boats underscore that the ceasefire remains fragile. Some U.S. analysts warn the MOU could collapse before the full 60-day window if parties doubt the other’s sincerity, and Trump aides say no force withdrawals are committed until a final pact is signed and verified. The coming days of diplomacy will test whether the tentative framework can produce the detailed, enforceable terms that regional capitals and global markets are demanding.

Author

Susanna Riva

Susanna Riva observes Bologna from the window of the State Archive, where she once spent a week consulting files on the city's cooperatives: that document prompted an editorial decision to probe institutional responsibility. She maintains a critical line in the newsroom, fond of long black coffee and a perpetually full notebook.