The political landscape in Iran is undergoing significant strain as the country grapples with escalating tensions with the United States. The conflict, which has been ongoing for nearly five months, has brought to light deep-seated divisions within Iran’s leadership. US President Donald Trump has asserted that Iran’s leadership is in disarray, claiming that nobody knows who is in charge, including them.
This portrayal, however, has been vehemently rejected by Iranian authorities. Instead, they have emphasized a unified stance on maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz a critical waterway for global oil trade. Despite this public unity, internal power struggles are evident, particularly between the military-security elite and diplomatic factions.
Military and Security Elite Assert Control
The military and security commanders who have risen to prominence since the start of the war present a united front, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Key figures include Ahmad Vahidi the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)Ali Abdollahi head of the joint wartime command, and Ali Azmaei the new commander of the IRGC Navy. These leaders have made rare public appearances, reinforcing their determination to solidify military gains in the strait.
Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr secretary of the Supreme National Security Council acts as a principal institutional coordinator. He has indicated that negotiations are acceptable only from a position of military leverage and without capitulation. Zolghadr has also emphasized that Tehran-backed allies in Lebanon and elsewhere remain an integrated part of national security.
Diplomatic Efforts Amid Internal Struggles
President Masoud Pezeshkian heads government ministries and economic management, advocating for diplomacy. However, his influence is weaker compared to the military-security elites. Pezeshkian has repeatedly denied reports of threatening to resign, despite often being the scapegoat for failed initiatives. In a televised meeting, he projected an image of unity, stating, Not only do I not consider myself to be separate from military commanders, but I will defend them strongly and consider it my honour.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has focused his rhetoric on diplomacy, blaming Washington for violating multiple articles of the memorandum of understanding. Meanwhile, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf the speaker of parliament, has been appointed as chief negotiator, leveraging his background as a former IRGC commander to navigate the political landscape.
The Hardline Factions and the Supreme Leader
The most hardline faction within the establishment is the Paydari Front led by Saeed Jalili. This faction opposes any concessions to the US, no matter the cost. The constitution of the Islamic Republic grants the supreme leader absolute authority, a position now held by Mojtaba Khamenei son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen publicly but is backed by the military-security elite.
Last week, he reappointed hardline judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei for another five-year term. However, Mojtaba Khamenei does not enjoy the same level of clout as his father, who had the final say in all matters. He has emphasized the need to avenge his father’s death, a sentiment echoed by hardline lawmakers in parliament.
The conflict has resulted in significant civilian casualties, with at least 30 civilians killed and 11 provinces affected in the past week alone. As the situation continues to evolve, the internal dynamics of Iran’s leadership will play a crucial role in shaping the country’s response to the escalating tensions with the US.
