The Sahel region of Africa is witnessing a surge in violence perpetrated by militant groups affiliated with al-Qaida and the Islamic State. As the world marks the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, these groups are gaining ground in MaliBurkina Faso and Niger challenging regional stability and global security.
According to data compiled by Acled incidents of violence involving jihadist groups in these three countries have skyrocketed from 63 in 2016 to 2,845 in 2025. The current year, 2026, has already seen 2,145 such events, suggesting a grim trajectory that could exceed 3,000 incidents by year’s end. This surge underscores the shifting dynamics of global terrorism, where the Sahel has become a hotspot for militant activities.
JNIM’s Strategic Offensives and Expanding Reach
The Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) an al-Qaida-linked group, has been particularly active in Mali. In, JNIM launched a joint offensive with the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) targeting strategic towns, government forces, and their Russian auxiliaries. This offensive resulted in significant casualties, including the death of Mali’s defense minister and the head of military intelligence. The rebels also seized control of the strategic city of Kidal, reversing a key victory won by the junta three years prior.
JNIM’s influence is not confined to Mali. In Burkina Faso, the group has claimed over 130 attacks in 2026, bringing the violence closer to the capital, Ouagadougou. In Niger, JNIM has claimed at least 17 attacks, though it remains less active than its rival, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara. The group’s expanding reach highlights its growing influence and the challenges it poses to regional security.
The Evolving Landscape of Global Terrorism
While the global death toll from terrorism has declined since 2008, the Sahel region has seen a sharp rise in fatalities. The United Nations recorded over 9,000 deaths from security incidents in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger in 2025. This concentration of violence underscores the region’s significance as a new epicenter for militant activities.
Experts note that the militant groups operating in the Sahel are primarily focused on local objectives rather than global attacks. Ulf Laessing a senior analyst at the Konrad Adenauer foundation in Berlin, emphasizes that these groups are localized and have not planned any attacks in Europe or the US. However, their growing influence and territorial control pose significant challenges to regional stability.
The Resilience of Al-Qaida and Its Affiliates
Despite the decline in global terrorism, al-Qaida and its affiliates continue to pose a significant threat. The group’s senior leadership has been described as marginalized, with no formal declaration of a successor to Ayman al-Zawahiri who was killed in 2022. The de facto leader is believed to be Saif al-Adel who has yet to make any public statements. Other leaders are thought to be based in Afghanistan, where the group has rebuilt a limited infrastructure.
The most potent al-Qaida affiliate outside Africa is Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) based in Yemen. The UN report describes AQAP as the vanguard of the global al-Qaida movement, committed to continuing the group’s campaign against the US. However, AQAP’s activity has fallen by approximately 70% from 2025 to 2026, indicating a decline in its operational capabilities.
In contrast, groups like JNIM and al-Shabaab in Somalia have mobilized tens of thousands of militants, highlighting the shifting dynamics of global terrorism. While al-Qaida’s global ambitions have waned, its affiliates in Africa are gaining strength and influence, reshaping the landscape of militant activities in the region.
