The political landscape of the 2026 midterm elections is being significantly shaped by the issue of immigration. With children playing on the Mexico-U.S. border wall in Playas de Tijuana, Mexico, on May 10, the topic has become a focal point for Republican campaign strategies.
An analysis of advertisement data from AdImpact reveals that Republicans are prioritizing immigration enforcement in their campaign messaging. This trend is evident despite a challenging start to the year for the president’s top policy. The data, which includes ads purchased from January through June, provides a glimpse into each party’s strategic focus as candidates prepare for the general election in November.
Republicans’ Heavy Investment in Immigration Ads
Republicans and their supporting organizations have run nearly 300 ads nationwide that either include a mention of immigration or are solely about immigration. This is a stark contrast to the 62 ads from Democrats and their supporting organizations. The data suggests that Republicans view immigration as a mobilizing issue that can energize their voter base.
One notable ad, funded by the MAGA KY PAC, cost over $831,000 and targeted Republican Rep. Thomas Massie, a frequent critic of President Trump. The ad read, “Republicans stood up for Americans. Democrats sat down for illegals. Thomas Massie sides with these radical-left lunatics.” Massie ultimately lost his race to Trump-endorsed candidate Ed Gallrein.
Expensive Ad Buys and Key Messages
Among the most expensive ad buys was a $928,000 investment in the Michigan governor’s race. Republican candidate Perry Johnson, who identifies as a “MAGA Conservative,” emphasized his support for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and his opposition to providing benefits to illegal immigrants. “No greater example of waste, fraud, and abuse in Michigan than using our tax dollars to give benefits to illegal immigrants,” Johnson stated in the ad.
Immigration as a Mobilizing Issue
Cameron Shelton, a professor of political economy at Claremont McKenna College, noted that campaigns are not necessarily trying to change minds but to shape the election’s focus and energize their existing voters. “If Republicans are investing much more heavily in immigration advertising, one interpretation is that they believe immigration is exactly that kind of [mobilizing] issue in today’s electorate,” Shelton said.
Most of the ads have run during the primary season, which is now more than half over. With over 90% of seats in gubernatorial, House, and Senate races considered safe for one party or another, the primary campaign has become decisive for many candidates nationwide.
Democrats’ Shift in Focus
Some Democrats became more vocal on the issue of immigration at the start of 2026, particularly in states experiencing intense waves of enforcement. For example, the Illinois Future PAC ran two ads, each worth more than $800,000, to support Juliana Stratton’s stance on abolishing ICE. Stratton later won the Illinois Democratic primary for Senate.
However, months into the year, Democrats have prioritized other topics, often to differentiate themselves from members of their own party, such as healthcare. Republicans, on the other hand, have kept immigration-related themes prominent in their advertising.
Strategic Signaling and Issue Linkage
For both parties, “Donald Trump” is the top subject in TV ad buys, according to data from AdImpact. “Immigration” is the issue with the second-highest spending for Republicans, while “ICE” is the third-highest for Democrats, after “healthcare.”
“It’s a signal to donors, it’s a signal to activists, to interest groups, to local candidates. It helps coordinate a lot of the actors that we think of as the party,” Shelton explained. “That’s another reason why some of these early ads are interesting, because they are signals of the direction that is trying to be set out.”
Republicans have linked immigration to other top issues such as the border, crime, and the economy. Mike Marinella, national press secretary at the National Republican Congressional Committee, stated, “Republican candidates have a large menu of issues we are on the right side of that are all very popular amongst voters.” He listed the border, crime, and the economy as issues that Republican candidates can connect to immigration.
Specific Proposals and Economic Concerns
Between January and June, Republicans outspent Democrats on immigration-related political advertising by about $36 million. Republican ads focused on immigration, totaling $53 million in spending, have aired across the country in 88 races and 27 states. Ads for Democratic candidates, totaling $17 million, have run in 20 races and 11 states, primarily those that have seen increased immigration enforcement action like California, New York, and Illinois.
Zach Lahn, who won the GOP primary bid for Iowa governor, spent about $475,000 on an ad in May that vowed to ban H-1B visa holders from being hired by Iowa government agencies and universities, linking immigration and economic concerns.
Democrats’ Pro-Immigration Statements
Ads promoting Democratic candidates have shied away from specific policy proposals. Instead, they include criticism of incumbents for recent votes on bills that have provided funding to immigration officers or expanded the scope of who could be detained. Others focus on personal connections to immigration, proposals to limit enforcement, and general pro-immigrant statements.
Frank Sharry, senior fellow at Third Way, a centrist think tank, noted, “Democrats are finding their voice on immigration after a rough few years during the Biden administration. I don’t think they’ll be running a bunch of ads on it. I do think they’ll be speaking to the issue and winning the argument, which is more important than whether they run ads on it or not.”
A poll from Gallup released in July shows that most Americans think immigration is a good thing, and a majority support some form of pathway to citizenship rather than a blanket deportation policy. However, there are sharp differences by party, with a majority of Republicans favoring hiring more Border Patrol agents, deporting anyone without legal status, and banning sanctuary cities.
As the 2026 midterm elections approach, the focus on immigration in political advertising continues to be a defining feature of the campaign strategies for both parties.
