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The Democratic mayoral primary is heating up, and it’s getting interesting as Zohran Mamdani gains ground against Andrew Cuomo, the current frontrunner. Recent polling data reveals that Cuomo’s lead has shrunk significantly—it’s been cut in half since last month! Let’s dive into the latest polling results, the demographics of the voters, and what this could mean for the upcoming primary.
Current Polling Overview
A recent poll from Marist College shows Andrew Cuomo leading Zohran Mamdani by a slim margin of 55% to 45% in a ranked-choice voting scenario. Just a month ago, Cuomo had a much more comfortable lead of 60% to 40%.
As early voting picks up and we approach primary day on June 24, these numbers are crucial for understanding the shifting voter sentiments.
One of the most eye-catching changes in this latest poll is the surge in support for Mamdani among Latino voters.
His approval rating has jumped from 20% to an impressive 41% in this demographic. On the flip side, Cuomo’s support among Latino voters has dipped from 41% to 36%. This shift could be a game-changer in the primary, emphasizing how important demographic support is in elections.
Voter Demographics and Trends
As the race unfolds, it’s clear that certain demographics are leaning toward Mamdani. For instance, he has captured 52% of voters under 45, while Cuomo only holds 18% support in this age group. However, Cuomo is still the favorite among older voters, garnering 47% compared to Mamdani’s 17%.
This generational divide underscores the critical role of voter turnout and engagement, especially among younger voters who seem to favor Mamdani.
Interestingly, the poll also reveals that while 21% of African American voters remain undecided, Mamdani’s support among black voters is relatively low at just 11%.
In contrast, Cuomo enjoys robust backing, with nearly half of black voters supporting him. Understanding these dynamics is key for both campaigns as they strategize on how to mobilize their respective bases.
Implications for the Upcoming Primary
The implications of these polling trends are significant. As Mamdani continues to gain momentum, particularly with younger voters and Latino constituents, the potential for a tighter race grows. Marist polling director Lee Miringoff emphasizes that this is clearly a two-person contest, making voter turnout essential for both candidates.
While Cuomo’s solid support among older voters and black communities gives him a sturdy foundation, Mamdani’s ability to resonate with younger voters could shake up the race. If Mamdani can effectively mobilize this demographic, he might not just close the gap—he could potentially overtake Cuomo as we near primary day.
As we count down the days to the primary, expect both candidates to ramp up their efforts to win over undecided voters and strengthen their bases. The political landscape can change in the blink of an eye, and while the outcome remains up in the air, Mamdani’s growing momentum is definitely something to keep an eye on.
