Data collected from September 21 to 28 shows a striking reversal in the political alignment of Latino voters. The survey, conducted by Hart Research Associates’ Aileen Cardona-Arroyo together with Republican pollster Micah Roberts of Public Opinion Strategies, indicates that the group that once gave former president Donald Trump a modest advantage now favors the Democratic Party by a substantial margin.
Poll numbers rewrite the Latino landscape
In the 2024 election, Trump edged out then-Vice President Kamala Harris by four points on the economy question. Today the same issue yields a 21-point advantage for Democrats. On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead 59 % to 35 % – a 24-point gap that doubles the advantage the party held at this stage in 2024 and approaches the high water mark of the 2018 midterms. Even among former Trump supporters, preferences have shifted: nearly one-fifth of Latino voters who backed Trump in 2024 now say they would rather see a Democratic-controlled House, while 14 % explicitly support Democrats and 8 % remain unsure.
Issue attitudes drive the swing
Latino respondents express harsh criticism of the president’s performance on several fronts: 78 % disapprove of his handling of the cost of living, 74 % of the economy, 69 % of immigration, and 68 % of foreign policy. By contrast, border security is the only area where his approval reaches 39 % (disapproval 58 %). When asked whether his policies have helped or hurt the economy, 65 % say they have hurt, only 23 % see them as helpful and 11 % claim no effect. Among Latino independents, a mere 10 % view the policies as beneficial, while 72 % say they have caused harm.
Economic concerns dominate the agenda: 33 % rank the cost of living as their top issue, and a total of 52 % place it first or second. Voters who prioritize this issue now favor a Democratic Congress by 22 points, flipping the 2024 4-point Republican edge. Moreover, 63 % say their household income is falling behind the cost of living, 25 % say it is even, and 11 % claim it is outpacing inflation.
Personal stories illustrate the shift
Luisa Santiago, a 59-year-old retiree from Florida, voted for Trump in 2024 after a lifetime of supporting Democrats. She later told interviewers that the experience felt like “a complete mistake,” adding that she feels embarrassed for having persuaded friends to vote for the president. Santiago called Trump a “disappointment” and criticized his deportation policies as “brutal” and “cold.”
Another respondent, a Florida voter in her twenties who asked to be called Maria, said she supported Trump because of fears about socialism. Two years later she says the president has “fallen short,” citing personal connections who were deported despite having paperwork and describing the economic climate as “weighty.”
Beyond individual anecdotes, the poll reveals broader behavioral trends: 31 % of Latino respondents or someone close to them now carry identification out of fear of ICE enforcement; 27 % know someone who has been detained or deported in the past two years; 18 % have contemplated leaving the United States; and 17 % have considered abstaining from in-person voting because of immigration-related worries.
Implications for the 2026 midterms
Analysts interpret the findings as a warning signal for Republican candidates in districts with large Hispanic populations. Micah Roberts described Latino voters as “the swingiest of swing groups” and warned that the “stunning” reversal could make previously safe Republican seats competitive, especially in South Texas, South Florida, Nevada and other states with growing Latino electorates. The data also suggest that any Democratic gains this November are likely to stem from opposition to Trump rather than a genuine surge in party enthusiasm.
Despite the Democratic advantage, the poll also notes that negative perceptions of the Democratic Party have risen modestly, with 42 % of Latino voters holding an unfavorable view—up four points since 2024. By comparison, 62 % express a negative view of the Republican Party, a 16-point increase. The
With 72 % of Latino respondents rating their interest in the upcoming election as a perfect 10—up from 54 % in 2024—and 62 % saying they are more motivated to vote than in past midterms, the community’s turnout could prove decisive. As the race heads toward November, both parties will need to address the economic anxieties and immigration concerns that dominate Latino voters’ priorities if they hope to secure or reclaim the seats now in flux.
