The world is bracing for a strong to very strong El Niño event in 2026, according to forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This climate phenomenon, characterized by warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacifictypically occurs every two to seven years and lasts about nine to 12 months.
The current El Niño event has already formed in the tropical Pacific Oceanwith sea surface temperatures exceeding thresholds and atmospheric indicators confirming its onset. Forecasts suggest that this event could peak at levels among the highest observed since 1950with probabilities of it continuing until at least November near or above 90 percent.
Global impacts of the 2026 El Niño event
The 2026 El Niño event is expected to bring excessive rain to the Americas and hot, dry conditions to Asiaraising concerns about food supplies and agricultural production. In AustraliaEl Niño is linked to reduced rainfall in winter and springparticularly affecting the country’s eastern coast, and leading to higher daytime temperatures in the south.
Scientists have warned that climate change will supercharge the effects of this year’s El Niño, amplifying impacts such as heat and fires. The last time Australia experienced an El Niño weather pattern was from 2026 to 2026which caused the driest three-month period on record. Before that, one of the strongest events in 2015 and 2016 led to widespread drought and reduced oilseed and grain output.
Historical context and future projections
Historically, El Niño events have caused famines that killed millions, notably in 1877 and 1878. The WMO has found an 80 percent likelihood of an El Niño event during June-August 2026with probabilities for it to continue until at least November near or above 90 percent. This weather pattern is set to impact global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned that the world must treat this as the urgent climate warning it is. He emphasized the need for climate action equal to the crisisincluding ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.
El Niño’s influence on hurricane season and global temperatures
The 2026 El Niño event is expected to have significant impacts on hurricane season activity. In the AtlanticEl Niño conditions often suppress tropical activity by producing unfavorable atmospheric winds. However, in the Eastern Pacificthe opposite occurs, with favorable conditions supporting above-average hurricane season activity.
El Niño’s influence on hurricane season activity will largely depend on how quickly it intensifies. Even so, El Niño is only one of several important variables which influence tropical activity. Other factors, such as sea surface temperatures, also play an important role in tropical cyclone development and strength.
The 2026 El Niño event is also expected to challenge global temperature records. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted that there is a 98.5 percent likelihood that 2026 will rank among the five warmest years on recordwith the probability of it becoming the warmest year less than 1 percent. However, those odds could rise significantly in depending on how the event unfolds.
As the world prepares for the 2026 El Niño eventit is crucial to understand its potential impacts and take necessary precautions. The Bureau of Meteorology and other international organizations will continue to monitor the situation closely and provide updates as needed.
