The Middle East is currently experiencing a complex landscape of ceasefire agreements, each with its own set of challenges and interpretations. Despite the presence of these agreements, deadly strikes continue to occur, raising questions about the true meaning and effectiveness of ceasefires in the region.
President Donald Trump recently addressed the ongoing exchanges of fire with Iran in the Gulf, suggesting that ceasefire promises in the region may not always be reliable. “It’s a different part of the world, you know,” he told reporters. “I’d say in that part of the world a ceasefire is when you’re shooting in a more moderate manner.”
Ceasefire Dynamics in Gaza
In Gaza, a ceasefire deal has been in place since October as part of a peace plan brokered by Trump. However, the agreement has not prevented Israeli forces from carrying out repeated airstrikes and firing on Palestinians, resulting in more than 936 deaths since the agreement took effect, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. Both Israel and Hamas have accused each other of breaching the ceasefire and their commitments under the agreement.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently stated his intention to increase Israel’s control over territory in Gaza, despite a stipulation in the peace plan that the Israeli military would initially withdraw to a demarcation line known as the “yellow line.” Netanyahu directed the military to increase control over Gaza to 70%, up from 50%. Further progress toward peace in Gaza has largely stalled, with no signs of the disarmament of Hamas or the further withdrawal of Israeli troops as indicated under Trump’s full 20-point peace proposal.
Lebanon’s Ceasefire Challenges
The situation in Lebanon is similarly uncertain. A ceasefire deal between israel and the Lebanese government, announced in April, has not prevented near-daily airstrikes on people and targets Israel says are linked to the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. The Lebanese government maintains that Israel’s actions are violations of the deal, which was also brokered with U.S. help. Israel, however, argues that Hezbollah has continued to launch rockets and drones at northern Israel.
The Lebanese Embassy in Washington stated that Hezbollah had accepted the terms of a U.S. proposal for a “mutual cessation of attacks,” which would also block Israel from attacking Beirut. However, clashes have continued, with Hezbollah officials denying giving approval for the renewed ceasefire and rejecting calls for withdrawal that the group said would mean “surrender, defeat and achieving the enemy’s goals.”
Expert Perspectives on Ceasefires
Experts have weighed in on the meaning and effectiveness of ceasefires in the Middle East. Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, noted that Israel can attack both Lebanon and Gaza based on its own estimation of any serious or potential threat. “It seems that the term ceasefire no longer really has any kind of operational meaning,” he added.
H.A. Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, criticized Trump’s remarks, stating that it was “rank bigotry” to suggest a ceasefire meant something different in the Middle East. “You’ve had ceasefires in the region multiple times over history, and they mean as much as they do anywhere else,” he told NBC News.
The United Nations acknowledges that there is “no single, universally accepted definition of a ceasefire.” A ceasefire may outline prohibited and permitted military and non-military activities, adding to the complexity of interpreting and enforcing these agreements.
The ceasefire agreement in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, reached nearly two months ago, had successfully paused large-scale strikes while negotiations were taking place toward a broader peace deal. However, as talks have publicly faltered in the past week, both sides have launched fresh strikes. On Friday, the U.S. military said it shot down Iranian ballistic missiles and drones launched toward the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf Arab allies, while striking some of the Islamic Republic’s coastal surveillance radar sites in response.
Michael A. Horowitz, a geopolitical and security analyst, noted that the Trump administration simply doesn’t want to resume fighting but hasn’t found a way to bring Iran to agree to conditions Washington finds acceptable. “So we’re stuck with a ‘ceasefire,’” he said. “Those ceasefires do not mean ‘no fire,’ but simply that both sides agree not to return to full-scale war.”
