For decades, the answer to who ruled Iran was straightforward: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. His influence overshadowed the country’s elected president and legislature, with the final say on all matters of state and command of Iran’s military forces. However, the landscape has dramatically shifted following Khamenei’s death on February 28, 2026, and the subsequent succession of his son, Mojtaba Khamenei.
The transition has been anything but smooth. Mojtaba Khamenei, who formally succeeded his father on March 4, has not been seen in public since the airstrike that claimed his father’s life. Reports suggest he is recovering from severe injuries, with no videos, audio recordings, or current photographs released to the public. This absence has raised questions about his ability to fill his father’s substantial shoes and the future of Iran’s political structure.
Power Struggle in Tehran
The Iranian regime’s unique structure, with civilian leaders and a religious supreme leader holding ultimate power, has always complicated diplomatic negotiations. Even when ‘moderates’ favored better relations with the West, the supreme leader’s approval was necessary. Now, with Mojtaba Khamenei’s role uncertain, other power players are stepping into the spotlight.
President Masoud Pezeshkian, a relative moderate who took office in 2026, has seen his influence curtailed during the war. His advocacy for diplomacy could gain traction if the ongoing ceasefire talks with the United States yield economic relief for Iranians. Meanwhile, Mohammed Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, has become a prominent figure in the media, explaining the government’s positions and leading negotiations with the United States.
On the military side, Ahmad Vahidi, commander in chief of the Revolutionary Guard, has emerged as a significant force. Vahidi has frequently overruled moderates seeking a quick deal to end the war, demonstrating the military’s growing influence. His involvement in past negotiations, such as the Iran-Contra affair, shows a willingness to engage with the United States under certain conditions.
The Supreme Leader’s Diminished Role
While Mojtaba Khamenei has been involved in ceasefire talks, his role appears less active than his father’s. Hussein Banai, an expert on Iranian politics, notes that the supreme leader’s power has diminished significantly. The lack of coordination among regime factions suggests a power vacuum in Tehran.
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East program at Chatham House, argues that the system is currently in control, with no single commander in chief. This collective leadership could lead to a more unpredictable Iran, with various voices and factions jockeying for influence.
The Future of Iran’s Regime
As the world awaits clarity on Mojtaba Khamenei’s role, the future of Iran’s regime remains uncertain. Some experts suggest that a less overtly religious but still authoritarian and nationalistic regime could emerge. This shift could be driven by a new generation of leaders who came of age during the Iran-Iraq war, rather than the anti-Shah resistance of the 1970s.
Domestically, Iran’s strict religious laws have been loosening, with many women choosing not to wear the hijab. Some experts expect the government to promote a more secular form of authoritarian nationalism, tolerating personal freedoms while suppressing political dissent. This approach may be necessary to maintain stability in a time of crisis and instability.
The revolution is nearly 50 years old, and change was inevitable. The war has accelerated this transition, testing the regime’s ability to reform and survive another generation. While the regime has shown it can endure a war with powerful adversaries, the population’s desire for normalcy may not be met for some time.
As Iran prepares to bury its longtime leader, the bigger question may be whether the role of the supreme leader will even exist much longer. The power struggles and rivalries that were suppressed during wartime may reemerge, shaping the future of Iran’s political landscape.
