The United States and Iran have reached a historic agreement to end the ongoing conflict, with both sides hailing the immediate cessation of hostilities. President Donald Trump announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, allowing oil to flow freely again. However, the final text of the memorandum of understanding remains unpublished, leaving many details uncertain.
The agreement comes after months of intense negotiations, with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif serving as the mediator. While the deal has been welcomed by many, significant questions remain about the future of the Strait of Hormuz, the situation in Lebanon, and Iran’s nuclear program.
The Strait of Hormuz: A Key Point of Contention
The status of the Strait of Hormuz has been a major point of contention in the negotiations. President Trump initially declared the strait would be opened immediately, but later clarified that its reopening was contingent upon the signing of a deal scheduled for Friday. The strait, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil flows, has been a critical point of control during the conflict.
Iran’s Mehr state news reported that the agreed memorandum of understanding calls for the reopening of the strait within 30 days under Iranian arrangements. The United States has long maintained that any tolling arrangements on shipping would be unacceptable. The leaders of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy emphasized that the reopening of the strait must be unconditional and with unrestricted freedom of navigation.
Despite the uncertainty, global oil prices tumbled in the hours following the news, falling to their lowest levels since early March. However, concerns remain about the safety of the strait and the time it will take to restore the Gulf’s energy production.
Lebanon: A Complex and Delicate Situation
The inclusion of Lebanon in the peace deal has been a key point of disagreement. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed that the agreement declares a permanent and immediate end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon. Mediator Sharif also stated that both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations in Lebanon.
However, President Trump made no mention of Lebanon in his initial announcements, focusing almost exclusively on the Strait of Hormuz. This omission could pose challenges, as Israel, which has not been included in the negotiations, may continue its military operations in Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has domestic political reasons to continue the conflict with Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Earlier plans to unveil the deal were disrupted by an Israeli attack on Beirut, which destroyed a building and killed three people. President Trump has repeatedly clashed with Netanyahu over Israel’s military operations in Lebanon, describing him as fucking crazy after a recent strike on Beirut.
Iran’s Nuclear Program: Unresolved Issues
The fate of Iran’s nuclear program remains a significant point of uncertainty. President Trump repeated his promise that Iran will never have a nuclear weaponbut senior Pakistani officials indicated that nuclear talks would continue over the next 60 days. If Tehran fails to reach a nuclear deal, it could face fresh attacks by the US military.
The E4 grouping of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy echoed Trump’s comments, stating that they are prepared to lift relevant sanctions in response to clear, verifiable steps by Iran on its nuclear program. Iran has long maintained that its nuclear program is peaceful and has not publicly committed to giving up the enriched uranium, which is believed to be buried under three nuclear sites damaged by US strikes last year.
President Trump faces significant political pressure to secure a better deal on the nuclear issue than the one he scuppered during his first term. He withdrew the US from a 2015 multilateral Iran deal that lifted sanctions on Tehran in exchange for limits on its nuclear program, including international inspections. Iran responded by ramping up its enrichment of uranium, producing more than 400kg of material at close to bomb-grade purity.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has stated that he will be watching closely the coming nuclear negotiations. The eventual fate of Iran’s enriched uranium is likely to be a key negotiating point during the upcoming broader talks.
