In the workshop of Lance Thrailkill, a third-generation owner of All Metals Fabricating near Dallas, a taxidermied Canada goose watches over a cluttered desk, flanked by a mallard and four deer heads. The macabre décor mirrors the looming Canada-U.S. trade war that has turned the price of aluminum into a headline-grabbing nightmare for the Texas metal-working sector.
Since the United States slapped its first tariff on Canadian aluminum in March 2025 Thrailkill reports an 84 percent surge in the cost of the metal. The upward pressure has not slowed; in 2026 alone the price rose another 40 percent. “Certainly, the inability to get a deal done with Canada affects my … approval rating of Trump,” he said, adding that the tariff pain would not shift his vote because of other pro-small-business policies. The quote underscores how, for many Texas entrepreneurs, economic strain and political loyalty coexist in a uneasy balance.
Ontario’s retaliation and the eight-state target list
In August after President Trump levied a 50 percent duty on $27.6 billion of Canadian imports, Ontario Premier Doug Ford wrote to Prime Minister Mark Carney urging a mirror-image response. In a letter dated Aug. 17 Ford singled out eight politically critical U.S. states—Texas among them—requesting that “products from these states should face the full force of Canada’s response.” The following day Carney announced dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs, a move that quickly escalated into a $28 billion tariff list affecting steel, aluminum, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, plastics and electronics. The aggressive stance was timed just before trade talks collapsed on Aug. 21 and its impact was felt in the Dallas arena as soon as the tariffs took effect on Sept. 8.
Midterm calculations: GOP’s take on the Canada dispute
At the Republican Party’s first midterm convention in the American Airlines Center, the Canada issue barely registered among attendees. Interviews with Dallas voters revealed only a vague awareness of the dispute; those who did comment usually echoed Trump’s broader narrative of foreign nations exploiting America, while noting frustration over higher prices. Former White House press secretary Sean Spicer told Global News the tariffs were “a tough sell in certain states,” especially in Senate battlegrounds along the Canadian border. Yet he maintained that Republican voters would reward Trump for confronting perceived economic unfairness.
Polling paints a nuanced picture. An Ipsos survey conducted after the trade talks fell apart found 57 percent of Americans opposed any additional tariffs on Canada. Meanwhile, a Reuters/Ipsos poll placed Trump’s The Cook Political Report currently lists seven Senate races and twenty-one House contests as toss-ups, including the highly contested Texas Senate race where Democrat James Talarico has a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton.
Economic interdependence and the small-business fallout
Texas and Canada trade roughly $69 billion worth of goods each year, and more than 830 Canadian-owned firms employ over 104,000 Texans. The flow of plastics, computers, trucks and aircraft northward, and Canadian automobiles, aluminum and vehicle parts southward, ties the two economies tightly together. Yet the tariff escalation hits the smallest players hardest. Thrailkill’s business must re-quote every job as costs climb weekly, especially for aluminum-intensive orders that travel through multiple distributors sourcing Canadian metal.
The cross-border impact is visible in places like Red Oak, Texas, where Bombardier’s jet-wing plant employs 440 local workers. Mayor Mark Stanfill warned that any federal action jeopardizing the facility would reverberate through the community’s economy. Though Bombardier pointed out that many of its components already arrive from the United States, the company’s exposure highlights how tariff pressure can translate into real-world job concerns.
Political vulnerability or limited threat?
Experts argue that Canada’s relative economic size limits its ability to sustain a prolonged war of tariffs. “The size of the Canadian economy is just not large enough to engage in a full-blown trade war with the United States for very long,” says Laura Dawson, executive director of the Future Borders Coalition. Small businesses like All Metals Fabricating feel the squeeze first, but the broader Texas electorate appears disengaged. Many voters, exemplified by Fort Worth resident Ronny Dudek, shrug off the issue, focusing instead on larger narratives of national decline.
Republican officials such as Rep. Randy Weber and Rep. Mike Bost downplay any electoral damage, suggesting the dispute may even bolster Trump’s image as a leader willing to stand up to foreign powers. As the November 3 midterms approach, the trade conflict remains a background factor—a potential pressure point for a few constituencies, but unlikely to shift the
